Gold Prominence increases when USD value is stressed . Image generated using ChatGPT
Visible Gold accumulation buzz since 2022
Major Countries seem to have turned into Gold bugs for although they may not advocate for gold vocally, like Gold Bug Peter Schiff– their Central Bank policy actions do. Since 2022 triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – Central Banks all over the World began purchasing Gold.
Between 2022 – 2026, China purchased 2,298 tons of Gold, Russia 1336 tons of Gold, India 880 tons of Gold besides other countries.
Massive Gold purchases from Country Central Banks drove the Bull Run of Gold with Gold’s price rising from 1672$ around Oct 2023 hitting a high of 5,603$ in Jan 2026.
Gold’s established status as a Top Tier Safe Haven Asset
Gold’s always ranked at the top in the Safe Haven Category of Assets. Source
Those following the financial Pulse of Global Markets – know Gold’s a Safe Haven asset, where investors swap their dollar fiat holdings to Gold to preserve their wealth.
Gold’s a Supreme Safe Haven Asset that wealth flows to when Dollar is weak.
Wealth flows into alternate Safe Haven assets when Dollar is weak.Source
Dollar is primary Safe Haven Asset – however it weakens in periods of Geo-political tensions, Financial Crisis, during periods of inflation. Here weakness means holder’s wealth erodes because dollar depreciates.
Periods of Geo-political tensions has wealth flow from Dollar to Safe haven asset Gold. Source
This has been a simple understanding of why and when Gold as an asset becomes attractive, however, there is more to this and my article aims to explain these interlinked dynamics – that determine time-periods when Gold shines as an investment asset.
USD Wealth growth Avenues with USD Derivatives earning yields
Gold matures in seasons of economic turbulence mentioned above.
A balanced US financial system are times where inflation stays controlled within limits of 2% intended by US FED. At these times of stable inflation – wealth stays in USD with risk perception of value erosion of USD being low.
In these periods even if economy experiences recession – USD is considered reliable enough to shift wealth into from risk-off assets (stocks, crypto etc).
USD wealth has a default avenue to grow even during phases of economic uncertainty or recessionary periods with Treasury assets; USD derivatives.
Treasury assets – US02 Year Bonds, US10 Yr Bonds.
These are traditionally considered safe investment avenues as Bonds are a debt instrument – with promise of US Government on guaranteed payment of principle amount, while bonds additionally earn yields.
Investors prefer holding Bonds for these yields.
When real yields don’t outpace inflation, wealth shifts to Gold
Gold earns no yields, but it has worked as a safe haven asset when US 10 Year yields don’t profit investors with earnings after accounting for inflation. These are periods when inflation is high and investing in bonds in spite the yields don’t preserve a investors wealth holdings.
Since, Gold is a Safe Haven asset – it is mostly brought during uncertain times, and sold off when USD strength revives maintaining stable value. This is why there are long periods of time when the shiny yellow metal is lackluster in its price action.
Situations where wealth stays in USD and bonds and factors that take it into Gold.
In current times, Gold is considered a safer Safe Haven than Dollar which is why Central Banks Globally are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves – swapping their reserves of USD for Gold.
Wealth swap USD to GOLD in uncertain times. Source
Practical problems experienced by Countries holding value in form of USD Reserves
There is a visible trend of De-dollarization. The Dollar’s share in foreign exchange reserves has declined from 71% in 1999 to 57% now.
Some Core reasons for this is -:
- Dollar is not a sovereign financial instrument, it is issued by US FED, and institutions have the power to freeze USD foreign exchange holdings of other countries.
USA sanctions on Iran has 100$ billion of Iran’s USD funds frozen since 1979.
Sanctions on Russia after 2022 have immobilized 300$ USD reserves of Russia.
Gold on the other hand cannot be frozen – it’s held value can be utilized converting it to fiat when required.
- USD is linked to debt, liabilities of the US Government in form US Bonds.
In recent times – USA’s debt to revenue ratio is large with revenues not sufficient to fund Government expenditure.
Currently US Government Debt is $39.1 trillion while revenues from taxes is $5.23 trillion. Annual deficit funding is 1.78$, a huge gap of funding expenditure in excess of revenue earned.
Servicing of Debt too has cost of 1.16$ Trillian.
With USD linked to unsustainable growing amount of Debt, should US Govt. default on payment of bond yields – there is risk of USD devaluation.
Gold on the other hand has no risk of devaluing since its value is not linked to any debt.
Currencies backed by Gold coming in fashion!
This is why a major Trade Block Alliance Brics comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Eqypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates have been planning for alternative currency to trade between themselves.
One of the planned frameworks of creating this alternate currency – was through backing its value with 40% of Gold and 60% with currency basket of member countries.
This is significant because Brics constitute more than 50% of world’s population and have a 40% share in Global GDP.
Gold looks to be an important constituent to make alternate currencies in future.
Mapping Gold’s Historical Price Action to economic factors at play!
Let’s examine Gold’s Historic Price Movements associating it with factors that influenced Gold’s Price Action.
Gold’s Price Action from 1971 to Now. Tradingview Chart>>
These factors are generally – inflation, USD strength and yields from 10 Yr Bonds.
1971-1980
USD becomes a fiat currency delinked from Gold by 1971 with abolition of Gold Standard. Post this, a new era begins where USD value is influenced by US Fed Fiscal and monetary policy actions.
In others words trust in USD depended on trust on US FED managed financial system. Before this USD value was backed by Gold.
During this time period (1971-1980) Gold’s price rocketed upwards from 191$ to 845$.
Factors at Play
USD inflation was high due to escalation in Oil Price.
With high inflation expectations 10 Yr Bond yields spiked as well.
Trust in USD was low – as reflected in Gold’s price behavior.
10 Year Bond Yield Movements since 1971. Currently we are in the era of rising yields, with yields broken away from pattern of Long term declining Yield trend line since 2021. A possible interpretation can be expectation of high inflation. Tradingview Chart >>
1980-1982
Gold Price crashes to 295$ declining during this period..
This took place as US FED’s Rate Hike Monetary policy was successful in bringing down inflation.
People began to trust USD to hold on value and maintain strength having trust in the US Fed overseen financial system with its inflation control mechanisms.
10 Yr yields began its steep decline with inflation worries calmed.
**1982-2001 **
Gold Price moved slow and flat between 295$ - 518$. Gold touched a low of 267$ by 2001.
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USD strength held well, while US Bonds were globally brought with USD considered to be a dominant currency being World Reserve Currency.
10 Yr Bonds gave lucrative earnings for investors – as yields lowered in a steady pattern as Bond prices increased being a trusted instrument bought globally.
With no events causing turmoil to Markets – there was no panic reaction to hedge against USD.
Wealth flow went into Bonds, Equities and other instruments.
2001-2008
Gold Price experienced a wild Bull Run rising from 267$ to 1000$
Factors that drove Gold’s Price were turbulent currents in the US Economy.
DOT.com bubble during 2001-2002, crashed Equity Markets. Businesses were struggling to function with losses.
US FED initiated rate cuts to aid businesses access capital – and continue their activities.
Inflation fears increase when ever money supply in the economy increases.
Investment behavior shifted into risk-off sentiment with wealth flowing to Gold.
2008-2011
Gold’s Bull Run Phase was not complete – price corrected to 700$, then moved to a peak of 1900$.
US Economy underwent a recessionary shock with Banking crisis making headlines.
To stabilize the banking system and economy US FED pursued its Quantitative Easing (QE) measures.
QE involves creation of money supply used by US FED to buy Mortgage-Backed Securities from Banks and Government Bonds
This was done to inject liquidity into Banking system and stabilize yields.
With US Bonds being debt instrument issued widely and held Globally, US FED finds it essential to keep their yields low.
There measures increased liquidity in the Markets and stabilized economy in the short term but the long-term side effects were seen to cause inflation, risking possibility of USD debasement.
2011-2015
Gold’s Bull Run ended – with its correction phase leading to price decline touching a low of $1050.
US Economy was in its revival Phase after prior recessionary phase.
USD strength normalized.
US FED adopted a low-interest rate policy to stimulate business growth and economic activities.
2015-2018
Gold underwent an accumulation phase with price climbing slowly upwards from 1070$ to 1395$.
US Economy prospered under a low-interest-rate regime.
With low borrowing costs – liquidity was ample to drive investment into risk-on-assets (equity and crypto)
2018-2020
Gold softly climbed, touching a new high of 2,048$.
US Economy was believed to have entered a phase of slow, declining growth.
Another concern was USD debt levels which were already large that time.
Trust in US Economic Growth Prospects were subdued.
This automatically reduces popular perception of USD – that it is a fundamentally strong instrument to hold wealth.
Asset Markets were suspected to be inflated – by investments flowing from excess liquidity not due to business performance.
On the weekly chart 10 Yr Bond yields halted making lows since 2014, yields were moving sideways.
By 2018, 10 Yr Bond Yields were showing early signs of forming an increasing trend, with higher low ascending pattern.
US Economy was dealing with undercurrents of inflation.
2020-2022
Gold entered the accumulation phase between 1700$ - 2070$.
Covid shock, lead to economic turmoil with economic activities coming to a standstill, and companies toning down their business activities.
US FED had increased spending in form of fiscal stimulus.
Inflationary pressures were piling up during this period.
With increase in liquidity Asset Markets were popped up – so Gold’s Bull Run did not get initiated.
10 Yr Bond Yields break long term declining trendline in weekly chart, entering a phase of increasing Bond yields.
US FED hiked rated rates from 0.25% to 5.5% from 2022 to 2025 to control inflation.
US Fed maintained a low interest regime from 2008-2018 and hiked interest rates as visible in charts on 2021. Tradingview Chart>>
2022-Now
Gold entered into a wild bull run breaking from 2,079$ , hitting a ATH of 5,600$ early this year.
Geo-political tensions, wars, Tariffs and Oil supply disruption lead to a phase of Global Economic Uncertainty, with Market stress on high possibility of inflation, recession and stagflation.
10 Yr yields stay contained within 4.7%.
US FED cut rates from 5.5% to 3.75% from Aug 2025 to April 2026.
Further rate cuts on hold as Tariffs and increasing Oil Prices are inflationary pressures that is expected to cause rise in inflation.
Conclusion
Gold’s phenomenal Bullish price action since 2023 clearly reflects its growing prominence as a Safe Haven Asset among Global Market participants and Central Banks.
The larger question however is whether Markets are witnessing a deeper shift in perception regarding USD’s long-term resilience as the dominant reserve currency. Rising debt levels linked with USD Bonds, persistent inflationary pressures, geo-political tensions and sanctions-related risks have increasingly raised concerns regarding the ability of USD to preserve wealth reliably over long time horizons.
Historically, wealth flowed back into USD once inflationary and recessionary periods stabilized. However, current Central Bank Gold accumulation trends suggest that reserve diversification beyond USD is increasingly becoming part of long-term strategic financial planning.
Additionally, while USD remains the most practical and dominant currency for Global trade and financial transactions, its vulnerability to sanctions and reserve freezes has encouraged several Countries to explore alternate reserve arrangements.
In such an environment, Gold continues to stand out as a politically neutral hard asset capable of preserving value across economic cycles, at least until future alternative reserve systems or currencies emerge — potentially including currencies partly backed by Gold itself.
This content created out of referring these sources –: