I was really looking forward to getting home today and doing this post, I started sharing my goals on May 22nd in this post, and now I will write about the results of the goal made in the previous post, analyze and also set a goal for the month. June based on these statistical data.
First, I would like to thank everyone who voted for my post and helped me reach the goal in the first two days, and surpass it in the percentages that I will talk about below, thank you very much, I really hope I can continue contributing with constructive content here within the community.
This post will be divided by topics:
First "analyze the results and compare the previously stipulated target"
Second "Scenario Projections Based on Results and My Perspectives"
Third "Definition of the goal objectively".
Enjoy reading, tips, reviews and suggestions in the comments.
Well my goal was to have a total of 447.11 staked pob. as I said in the post on May 22, when I had 392.71 pob staked, but the result was well above expectations, and now I'm going to share some numbers and do some calculations and analysis with them...
Target on June 1st: 447.11 staked pob
Result on June 1st: 539.48 staked pob
This means that the result exceeded the target by 169.59%
the net profit objective of pob was:
Target on June 1st: 54.4 pob
Result on June 1st: 146.77 pob
This net gain represented a total gain of 37.37% on the total amount that had staked on May 22, 23.52% more than my projection, whose percentage value was 13.85% on the first day of June.
My average gain per post on May 22, dividing the total pob earned per author by the number of posts published was 15.74 per post.
From the day I posted my goal until today the average was approximately 21.6 pob per post, of course the period of analysis in this point of view is very short, but the total average is 17.02 pob per post. this represents a percentage increase in the average gain per post of 8.13%. I know I'm including all earnings as authored, unfortunately I didn't record the statistical data of curated earnings, but I'll do it from now on, so I can have a more accurate calculation next month.
Scenario projections based on results and my perspectives.
Well to start designing a fair goal, not too easy to overcome without challenges, but also not too difficult to be unattainable. we can start from the average number of earnings per curation of 17.02 pob per post, remembering that due to the 7 days it takes to pay for the authorship post, then the net result of July 1 will be the result of the work done up to the day June 24th.
Well the simple count is starting from an average of 17.02 per post, and I have the discipline to post once a day, and the competence to continue with this same average of earnings in authorship, the result on July 1st would be:
17.02 x 24 = 408.48
Plus the sum of my staked balance of 539.48, as I write this post, the goal would be to have on July 1st a total of 947.96 pob staked.
This projection is extremely simple and objective without any perspective of leverage and with constant stability.
But we know that things are not always so stable, and even more when we are talking about human beings and relationships, my posts can reduce the average gain and my frequency of posting may not be as regulated.
But I can also produce higher quality content, achieve more engagement and or even receive delegations, and of course there is the power of compound interest in curation that so far has not been taken into account.
So I think it's necessary to imagine a positive and negative scenario to set my goal for the 1st of July.
I'm not going to go into too much in either scenario because this is not the purpose of the post, and I don't have enough knowledge. my goal here is to set a challenging but achievable goal.
Let's go to the negative scenario.
The first negative fact that I believe can have a lot of influence on the goal to be reached is the fact that I don't post every day. I have a girlfriend who doesn't live with me yet and I'm starting a new job, and I want to start going to the gym. these three factors can greatly influence my posting frequency.
My content may not be good enough every day to generate engagement to the point of winning your vote, whether because of the topic covered, my opinion being divergent from yours, or simply the written language does not please, negatively impacting the average of pobs by post.
The curatorship sometimes doesn't use it to its fullest potential, getting the vote 100% and forgetting to vote, or having to vote a lot to lower my hivepower while I'm busy for hours that I can't be voting.
And finally, there may be the need for me to withdraw some amount of pob for external reasons that I do not wish to spend or do not know about.
Taking these 4 factors into account I think I could reduce the goal in a very negative scenario by half the simple projection and it would look like this
Posting frequency: 12 days out of the 24 available 12/24
authoring earnings: 12x15 = 180 12 post earning an average of 15 per post which was my previous average since I started
get pobs I don't think it will be necessary.
and curated earnings I put 64 pobs because I don't have much data to base myself on
The goal of the negative scenario would be the balance on the 1st of July:
Target: 783.48
And the positive scenario I confess that I will cheat a little, it would be a dream for me to arrive on July 1st with 1k pob staked for that I would need to earn 460.52 pob.
Target: 1k
Goal setting objectively
Well now to close this post I'll define my goal:
And you want to know? screw it, i'll get the 1k.
Goal: 1000 pob
Let's run after our dreams
Let's make the pob big.