The war that erupted on February 28, 2016, when the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on Iranian territory, is barely eight days old and has already radically transformed the geopolitical map of the Middle East. With over a thousand dead in Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei eliminated, and the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed, the question on everyone's mind is inevitable: when will this end?
The short answer is that nobody knows. Not even the main players seem to have a clear answer.
The optimistic scenario: a month or less
Trump told several media outlets that he thought the conflict with Iran would last "four weeks," which would place the theoretical end around the end of March or the beginning of April. In this scenario, the overwhelming military superiority of the US-Israeli coalition manages to destroy Iran's offensive capabilities before the conflict becomes entrenched. According to Israeli military sources, a large portion of Iran’s air defense systems and missile launchers were already neutralized in the first week, which would support this interpretation. The regime, decapitated and militarily weakened, could be forced to negotiate within weeks.
The most likely scenario: months of uncertainty
However, there are factors that greatly complicate a swift resolution. Trump has declared that there will be no agreement short of Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” without specifying exactly what that means, which virtually eliminates any short-term diplomatic solution. Meanwhile, a three-person leadership council holds power in Iran while a new supreme leader is chosen, a process that could be protracted and generate internal tensions. Without a clear interlocutor at the head of the regime, negotiation becomes almost impossible.
Furthermore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the war will soon escalate, suggesting that Washington is far from considering an end to it.
The worst-case scenario: a long, regional war
The worst-case scenario is already taking shape. The war has sent commodity prices soaring and disrupted global travel, while the conflict is gradually drawing in Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other regional actors. The UN has warned that the situation could "spiral out of anyone's control." In this scenario, we wouldn't be talking about weeks but months, with the real risk of an internal insurgency in Iran and prolonged instability throughout the region.
What does seem clear is that the end of this war depends not only on missiles but also on a political decision that, for now, no one in Washington seems willing to make.
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