The 2025/26 Champions League reaches its most exciting stage. The Round of 16 kicks off this week, on March 10th and 11th, with matchups like Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta, Liverpool vs. Galatasaray, Barcelona vs. Newcastle, Chelsea vs. PSG, and Manchester City vs. Real Madrid. With the draw now complete and the bracket set, the question is on everyone's mind: who will lift the trophy in Budapest on May 30th?
Arsenal, the clear favorite
According to Opta's algorithms, Arsenal is the clear favorite, with almost a 28% chance of winning the Champions League, nearly double that of the second favorite, Bayern Munich. Mikel Arteta's team has had a dream season: they are the most in-form team in all of Europe, haven't lost a single match in this edition of the Champions League, and also lead the Premier League. Their defensive solidity, versatile attack, and, above all, their set-piece prowess are their defining characteristics.
Bayern Munich and Manchester City, the Chasers
Bayern Munich is the second major contender. Vincent Kompany's side only lost one league match and is the clear leader of the Bundesliga, with a team undergoing a complete reinvention in which young players are gaining momentum. Harry Kane is the great hope for this knockout stage. Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola's Manchester City is another favorite despite finishing eighth in the league. They are not currently at their best, but have shown an ability to reinvent themselves in crucial moments.
PSG Defends Title with Difficulties
PSG is the reigning champion and faces this edition with the ambition of defending their Champions League trophy. However, Opta analysts give them less than a 5% chance of repeating. The Parisians had an inconsistent league campaign and reached the round of 16 as one of the unseeded teams, where they now face Chelsea.
Real Madrid and Barcelona in the background
Despite their history, European giants like Barcelona and Real Madrid have dramatically low chances compared to the favorites. Real Madrid faces none other than Manchester City, while Barcelona will take on Newcastle.
Of course, the favorite never wins the Champions League!
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