accidentally posted this in the comic book community, sorry folks. You can skip this one
This link below will take you to the pfd of the report/estimation of the worst case scenarios, the measures that we are dealing, with were put into action to avoid. Produced bythe Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
They use computer algorithms and predictive programs to extrapolate possible numbers of three kinds of measures, countries could take. 1. doing nothing 2. the shutdown type measures we have now. 3. letting the virus run it's course in moderation so that the population builds up immunity.
You've likely seen snippets of it or a image or two, but nothing more because it's 21 pages long and not exactly a riveting read.
The science behind mathematical predictive modeling is really advanced. It is amazing stuff. The insurance industry has this now to factions of decibels as far as accuracy. But no insurance company in their right mind would extrapolate numbers to give you the odds of a car accident in the state of New York, if they did not have the figures for New York City in June, July, and August. Because any number they came up with would be worthless.
Let me explain something to you that is undeniably true. You can NOT solve a math equation that has two steps if you do not have the number for step 1. IT CAN NOT BE DONE.
There is NO way to determine the death rate of a disease if you do NOT know how many people had been infected. It can not be done. And in this case there is no data from previous years at there disposal. The vast majority of the data we do have, of the only three months worth of data on this spread, is from China. China has no data from the first three weeks because they ignored it and they stopped testing all but the most symptomatic cases early on, and ran out of test kits completely before it peaked there.
We do not have data for their peak. Let me give you a visual...here is one of their models, just a skeleton of it so you get the varying degrees of infection cases possible at a peak
This is what our numbers for China would look like
Do you understand the problem here?
That is a very important period of time to not have numbers for if you are going to predict anything. Like I said...this is not knowing how many car accidents happened in New York City in the summer.
We have no idea how many people got infected but showed no symptoms, we have no idea how many people showed symptoms but hid them...which in the case of China would be a lot because the government was literally attacking people on the street and dragging them off. Citizens who are terrified of their government are not very likely to come forward willingly to be held captive by them.
A lack of total data does not mean you can't come up with solid ballpark figures. That's what the billion dollar insurance industry lives by after all, fill in the gaps through math wizardry. But to be missing a large, fundamental figure like the number of people who contracted the virus in it's largest affected population, at the very peak , leaves you with no way to give any more than a wild guess at what the death rate could be.
This report, if you read very closely, all but admits they are taking a wild guess at this figure. The phrase "we assume" is scattered across this thing like parmigiana cheese on a ceaser salad. In JUST the paragraph explaining their methodology, they used the word "assumed" five times in regards to data. Data about the numbers, data about how long someone is infectious, data about reinfection. The appendix of their sources is littered with papers containing the necessary phrase " has not been peer reviewed, should not be used for clinical practice." Because, in fairness, it this point they haven't had time, nor have enough data to really know wtf this thing is.
There is a lot of good solid science here, at the most expert level mankind is capable of...AFTER THE PART WHERE THEY TAKE A WILD GUESS AT THE FIGURE THEY USE FOR THE REST OF IT.
THEY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO GIVE A LEGITIMATE DEATH RATE.
That is undeniable.
That's why we see no figures on how contagious it actually is...there is simply no way to calculate that at this point.
and to use the numbers they do have from China, assuming you want to believe anything they say as they are working their ass off to not look like jackasses who allowed a virus to get loose on the world, is not data that is directly parallel to the other nations of the world anyway.
Here is the problem with specialists. They have a masterful amount of skill an knowledge in one specific area, and a big blind spot to everything else. This isn't dig, it's just the way it is, it's limitation of the human brain, it can only acquire and put to use a finite amount at one time. So, often when they are asked address a problem using their specific expertise, that is exactly what they do. Anything not related to that area is left out. As though it does not exist. As though nothing else is a factor. It becomes science to such a high specific level that it actually circles back to being junk science. Or in this case junk math.
Take this example and understand it...More people are going to die in Italy than in Denmark, because outside of Rome, Italy is poverty stricken and it's health care system is anemic. The affect and spread of a virus in Caracas, Venezuela is not going to be the same in Ontario, Canada.
Specialists...they are looking at the numbers...and not factoring in the environment, air quality, and that the strength of the immune system of ten people in the U.S. is not the same as that of 10 in the Chinese province of Wuhan who live on top of each other like an overcapacity submarine, have working conditions that would make even the most corrupt OSHA inspector break out in tears, breath in the most polluted air mankind has to offer, and have (since they like numbers so much, here's a figure they could easily find) 1.5 doctors for every 1000 people.
The simple medical knowledge a U.S.citizen has, the access to over the counter medications, disinfectants, and cleanliness of the general surrounding is in no way shape or form as problematic as someone living in Wuhan China.
You can not with a straight face ...act as though all these factors don't play a roll and sit there and print out the results from the flawed data you inputted into the program. The results would be, and are dramatically flawed.
That INCLUDES their data on victims who will live but need hospital care. ALL OF THE FIGURES ABOUT HOW MANY PEOPLE WOULD END UP IN A HOSPITAL...THEY ALSO CREATED WITHOUT ANYWHERE NEAR ENOUGH DATA.
What they have also failed to use as a factor, is the weather itself. Much of this comparison was using the measures that were effective to some degree during the 1918 flu. That flu began in OCTOBER...it had five months of the most hospitable weather a virus could ask for. This is MARCH.
Actual medical scientists dealing with the actual physical properties of the virus itself note that it is harmed by heat ( like most viruses) and ultra violet light (like most viruses). You can not with any legitimacy what so ever equate how fast a virus will spread in January with how fast it will spread in April and May.
This is less of a report with any real life use, than the showing off of abilities of a complex computer program to extrapolate numbers.
But the best computer program we have or will ever have will not give you a correct answer to a math equation if you input incorrect data.
They do not have any idea what the death rate is...period. Therefor everything in this is report is a guess...period. and they have failed to take into account, the weather, man made environmental factors, and the difference on average immune system health of the countries in question.
This report is as worthwhile as the satellite images we got of Iraq that guaranteed they had weapons of mass destruction. Maybe worth even less than that, because a fuzzy image might be something, you could argue about that until you know. But you can not argue about MATH. and you can NOT figure out the rate of death when the figures from the peak of it's spread in the most populated country on earth..DOES NOT EXIST.
...and here we all sit, because our leaders looked at the charts but apparently didn't read the first five pages where the methodology was explained...or lack of it.
Think as you will what the effects of this virus will be on your fellow man, use whatever precautions you see fit, listento your doctor, but don't think or do any of it because of the figures in this report. This is a wild guess wrapped in algorithms.