On March 30th Bryan Anderson reported reported on X.com, that Michele Morrow was considering challenging Senator Thom Tillis (Republican) in the 2026 Primary Elections. Morrow was defeated in the 2024 General Election in her bid to become North Carolina's Superintendent for Public Instruction. Morrow's announcement seems more like a bid to keep her name in circulation amongst politcal influencers rather than a serious bid.
In the announcement to Anderson, Morrow alleged that Senator Tillis had not displayed sufficient loyalty to Trump. This sort of sentiment may resonate with some segments of grassroots Republicans, but is irrelevant to the realities of electoral politics in North Carolina. The hard truth is that while Republicans and Democrats select the nominees in the Primary elections, Unaffiliated voters choose the victors in the General Election. Morrow defeated the Republican incumbent in 2024, and went on to lose the General Election to the Democratic Party candidates. It is unlikely that Primary voters will give her a second chance to lose an even higher stakes election. Control of the Senate may come down to who wins in North Carolina.
Thom Tillis is a savvy campaigner, and has seniority in the Senate. Trading Tillis for another Republican would diminish North Carolina's influence in the Senate. The other reality that Morrow would rapidly understand is that Republican donors in North Carolina will not bet against Tillis. According to FEC filings Tillis has raised more than $2,000,000 for his campaign, and can easily command millions more. Morrow who has not filed with the FEC, has raised nothing for a Senate run. Dan Brown and Andy Nilsson have filed to run against Tillis in the Primary, and both candidates are likely already contending with the difficulty of raising money.
Serious Republicans in North Carolina understand that Thom Tillis, will face a hard fight against the Democrat Candidate, who likely either be former U.S. Representative Wiley Nickel, or former North Carolina Roy Cooper should he choose to enter the race. The goal of the Tillis campaign will to be get through the Primary, while spending as little money as necessary and uniting Republicans around his candidacy. Tillis will need to position himself early to appeal unaffiliated voters with moderate positions. North Carolina Republicans can either accept electoral reality, or resign themselves to losing the seat and handing the Senate to Democrats.
Johnston County Dynamics
The face of local politics have changed to some degree in Johnston County. Johnston County Republicans turned out strongly to vote for President Trump, but Governor Stein came within a few hundred votes of beating Mark Robinson in Johnston County. Morrow performance was weaker in Johnston County versus her State-wide average. Johnston County residents voted against a slate of Board of Education candidates who were viewed as closely aligned to Morrow, and voted for more moderate candidates. Some of Morrow's most fervent supporters in Johnston County have seen their relative political influence diminished in the wake of the 2024 elections. A Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate can not win the nomination in 2026, without winning Johnston County.