Within days of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s financial system seemed on the verge of collapse. The West imposed a range of financial sanctions, notably on the Russian central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves, that sent the rouble plunging and led citizens to withdraw cash frantically. Then the central bank raised interest rates, imposed capital controls and injected liquidity into the banking system, and some of these misfortunes reversed. Although a chunk of Russia’s currency reserves remains frozen, the country still generates about $1bn a day from its energy exports.
Russia has stopped publishing detailed monthly trade statistics. But figures from its trading partners can be used to work out what is going on. They suggest that, as imports slide and exports hold up, Russia is running a record trade surplus.