Don't you find Bitcoin quite boring for the past few weeks/months? Cuz I sure feel that way. It's like we've gotten into a neverending ranging track and I bet traders are not too excited about the market either.
The recession is about to kick in, I don't see any signs of it in here yet, but I bet we're gonna have a taste of it soon and so far Bitcoin has not had any experience in "dealing with financial crisis or recessions". "He's a virgin" in this regard.
All things have a beginning to start with and 2023 is most certainly the year we're gonna have to see how BTC and the whole crypto market are behaving during a recession. It was supposed to be a hedge against such times, but so far Bitcoin hasn't proved that.
Back in the 2018-2019 bear market, it took BTC about 15 months to bottom. Bottoming, the way I see it is a many months-long process and not some singular wick down or flash crash. Yes, the absolute low for BTC for the current bear cycle might be $17,500, but that doesn't mean we have bottomed.
We will be able to say that, once BTC will once again show strength in piercing through resistances and ignite a proper bull run.
Worth noticing, however, is the fact that in 2017 Bitcoin started losing grip just after it had its blow-off top in December... We didn't have anything similar happening in 2021. As a matter of fact, one could have made reasonable profits whether selling in May or November 2021. The difference between the peaks was just a few grands.
What many are missing, though, in the grand scheme of things when it comes to Bitcoin's price action for the past two years or so is the fact that BTC marking a double top pattern translated to a kind of stretching of its "price path".
I'd say that this stretch has managed to eat some of the bear market time we were supposed to have if there wasn't for the double top to occur. So, it took Bitcoin about 15 months to bottom in the past cycle and we are now nine months into the bear market. Does that leave us with another 4 months of crawling?
Not necessarily. We don't know what's going to happen, all I'm throwing here is suppositions and perceptions, but nothing more. I would say that we should have a shortened bear market this cycle and that "the 2018 time for Bitcoin" should be close to over, that meaning we've got to fight weaker bears in the next few months.
We don't know how Bitcoin is going to behave during a recession, though... That should be the main takeaway of this post.
I would also like to point to the fact that back in 2018 the bottoming range of $3,000 was about 3x the 2014 peak. Now we see BTC ranging in the $20Ks which is actually the exact same level it reached as a peak in 2017. It shouldn't break down from there, "cuz it never happened before", but nothing's ceratin anymore...
By looking at the all-time chart for BTC we could notice that the price action of BTC from the end of June till today is looking like a double bottom formation... That should be a good sign.
So, in a conclusion, I believe that the worst is over for Bitcoin and the whole crypto market, that's why I entitled the post "2018 is almost over", however, I don't consider we should expect any proper bull run any time soon. What do you think?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian