What catalysts propel Bitcoin to paint a triumphant $2,000 green candle on its canvas? More often than not, it takes a spark of positive news in the realm of cryptocurrencies, and yesterday, we witnessed just that—Grayscale emerging victorious in an SEC lawsuit involving a Bitcoin ETF review. As euphoria gripped the community, many swiftly leapt to the assumption that the United States might soon embrace its inaugural Bitcoin spot ETF.
In this unfolding drama, all eyes are on BlackRock, the scheduled contender. Yet, my skepticism lingers; I doubt the SEC will acquiesce quite so readily. From what I gather, Grayscale's win pertains to a Bitcoin ETF "review," a far cry from triggering a cascade of Bitcoin ETF approvals.
However, akin to the recent Ripple case, such legal victories against the SEC lay bare the regulatory body's ineptitude within the industry. There's speculation that Gary Gensler's tenure at the SEC might be fleeting. On another front, BlackRock's track record boasts a staggering 99% approval rate for financial products. My conjecture aligns with BlackRock soon receiving its share of the Bitcoin spot ETF pie—a development that could usher in a deluge of similar offerings.
Nonetheless, the prospect of BlackRock delving into the crypto domain doesn't automatically spell positivity. If they enter the realm of Bitcoin with the same fervor they displayed in the housing market, the distribution of coin holders might indeed constrict. Remember, MicroStrategy already possesses over 100,000 coins, a substantial chunk out of the 21 million total. Is it reasonable to expect BlackRock to settle for a secondary role?
Doubtful...
Turning to Twitter, a cacophony of skeptics is questioning the recent bullish surge, dubbing it a bull trap. This chorus has accompanied virtually every twist and turn in Bitcoin's price action since last November. The cycle began with a bull trap claim when BTC reached $19,000, repeated itself at $25,000, and once more as Bitcoin scaled to $32,000. Today, with BTC probing the $25,000 support and rebounding, targeting $31,000 as resistance, the same voices echo the familiar refrain.
So, are we navigating a resolute bull market or ensnared within a cunning bull trap? As I've iterated on this platform for months, I steadfastly believe that the bear market concluded for BTC as the golden corn surged beyond the $15,000 threshold, smashing through barriers at and beyond $20,000. A glance at the charts suggests BTC's ascent is methodical, step by step.
While some liken the current bull market to the 2019 edition, I argue that it bears closer semblance to the 2015-2017 surge. BTC's upward grind stands in stark contrast to the fervent fluctuations of 2019-2021. While I don't anticipate an exact replication of prior cycles, my intuition nudges me towards a bull market reminiscent of 2017.
Conspicuously, altcoins appear to lag behind BTC in the ongoing race, fanning the flames of maximalists' rhetoric, pronouncing the demise of substantial altcoin profits. On this matter, I vehemently dissent. If your pursuit leads to the allure of dollars during this cycle, altcoins are the gateway to outsized returns.
While I don't envision BTC exceeding a 5x surge from this juncture, numerous altcoins are poised for 50x gains and more during this bull market. A comparable narrative once spurred me to part with my DOGE holdings (all 588,000 coins) back in 2019. Let's not heed these voices of skepticism; the altcoin landscape is poised for a long-standing tenure. Retail investors will likely drive the surge.
And it's these very retail players who might bear the brunt, clutching underwater bags as the next bear market descends. Your thoughts?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian