It's been a long time since I had an #askleo post on Leofinanec and I kind of missed that because such posts were so engaging to me. I almost had such type of content on a daily basis, back in the day, on all sorts of topics finance and crypto-related. Today it's time for another one...
After so long...
When BTC lost ground at $69,000 and it started falling and falling and falling I refused to believe we were about to enter a bear market because I was so attached to a blow-off top that should be culminating a bull market and I was also allured into the super cycle narrative that would not include any bear market in the equation.
Both made so much sense to me and both were so damn off-track.
Now all of these are irrelevant as Bitcoin doesn't seem able to even hold $17,000. 
I believe that the shakeout he points at already happened when BTC cracked the ice under $16,000 at the end of November testing the lows($17,500) it marked at the beginning of the same month. That could be a double bottom, the way I see it, but we don't know for sure.
We might or might not be in the bottoming phases after these two "cracks" on the chart of BTC. There though are a few analysts on Twitter saying that according to some of their indicators we might soon enter the bullish territory, but you know CT, it's most often wrong than right.
The past bear market lasted for about 15 months after the peak in 2017 was reached and it saw BTC correct from as high as $19,666 to as low as $3,200 or something like that.
The bottoming process which started after the final shakeout($3,200 BTC) of that bearish season took about three months to complete, which means that if history were to repeat itself, although I doubt that, we are now in the bottoming phase which will end the bear market sometime at the end of February 2023 and from there on the market shall commence a new uptrend.
Once BTC has bottomed it doesn't mean it's only up from there or that we should expect any parabolic run, but it's clear that we won't see any "lower lows" being painted either.
I actually don't know what to answer to my own musing of this #askleo post. My bias tells me that we're a few months away from the end of the bear market, but my bias also told me the bull market didn't/couldn't end in November 2021.
Biases don't help, though, these are actually counter-productive and since I don't do TA, though, I will use my intuition to say that in Q1, maybe mid Q2 we will be out of this bear market. What do you think?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian