I wonder how the famous YouTuber, Logan Paul, feels about paying over $600,000 for a damn jpeg NFT that's worth only $1,600. Being in such a situation is not too uplifting, but that's what happens when you buy into hype or FOMO near the peak of a bull market.
If you look at almost any crypto chart, you'll notice that they all go through a pretty long period of ranging prices followed by a sudden parabolic run that seemingly comes out of nowhere, only to be followed by a cooling phase that brings us all back to reality.
During the last bull market, I had increasingly high expectations for the market and stubbornly refused to believe that the peak was near. However, the market doesn't do what we want it to do; it simply follows the dictates of supply and demand.
$69,000 was the top of the past bull market, despite the insane predictions some moon boys had for Bitcoin and many other altcoins that were supposed to buy us Lambos and whatever else. Now, almost all of these Lambo boys are resting.
Only a few have been making predictions lately, and so far, the ones I'm following on Twitter have been pretty accurate. I don't follow too many crypto heads on Twitter anymore; I've cleaned my feed a lot. I'm lucid enough to realize that when it comes to technical analysis and timing the market, there are certainly individuals who are better than me at understanding and predicting it.
No one will accurately predict anything in crypto, but what we can be sure of is that the periods before the parabolic rises take a lot of time for the bubble to inflate. These times can be exhausting and make many of us want to quit. Have you ever had that feeling that it takes the market forever to recover from its depths? Well, we're pretty much there in the case of many altcoins.
Just recently, I talked with an acquaintance of mine who owned some crypto during the peak phases of the bull market and the deflation phase. He was telling me that we won't have any bull market anymore and that the good times for Bitcoin are gone. I highly disagree on this one. BlackRock, which owns a good chunk of almost anything you can imagine, has a Bitcoin spot ETF application waiting for approval.
These guys are not your regular type of investors; they didn't enter crypto to waste money. If you pay attention to their deeds, you'll see that they actually entered the space right on time, in the middle of the accumulation phase. A period when not so many are actually accumulating, although they should be...
Do you have any reason to be bearish right now?
Personally, I don't have any... It's been one and a half years since Bitcoin popped, and its bubble deflated. The halving is getting closer, and we're most certainly going to have the first Bitcoin spot ETF approved in America right before the halving, yet the masses are still bearish.
Let me tell you when the masses will turn bullish again; it will happen right before the peak, and they'll once again fall into the trap of moon boys' hype and euphoria. Same shit every cycle; psychology never changes. What's gonna be the next trend? I don't really know. NFTs had insane gains during the past bull market, MEME coins did very well too, but tbh I have no clue what's going to make us insane amounts of money this bull cycle.
I'd wish it was social media tokens such as Hive, but wishes don't fuel markets. It can be AI coins, metaverse tokens, or whatever. You don't have to chase pumps and hype, though. Pick a bunch of solid projects and stick with them for another two years, and you'll be good, in my opinion... The times when eternity feels so long are the best to be accumulating, that's for sure...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian