I got blocked by PlanB, and it’s not something that happened recently either—it was about two years ago. I commented on one of his S2F model posts, saying that his model was a failure. It was a failure because his model forecasted a $288,000 BTC in the last bull market. And, well, that didn’t happen... I guess you all know that by now. BTC only reached $69,000 as an ATH, and my take is that the psychological peak for the market happened in May 2021 at $64,000.
Now, this man has a new model—caught it on someone’s YouTube video—and according to his latest predictions, the price peak for this cycle should be around $500,000. I have one word for him... Actually, four: Not going to happen. Mark my words: BTC won’t touch $500,000 this cycle.
Personally, I think it’ll be a miracle if we even see $200,000 BTC. And don’t call me a bear for that. Anyone who’s been reading my posts and was here in early 2023 knows I’ve been saying since then that we’re in a bull market and will ride this wave until the majority realizes it too... That’s when the bubble pops. Whether BTC will peak at $95,000, $100,000+, or $200,000 is beyond my ability to predict. All I know is that I’ll become very cautious when the majority turns super bullish. That’s when I’ll start DCA-ing out of the market.
I do believe BTC will hit one million dollars per coin someday—but not anytime soon, regardless of ETFs or any other bullish metric. If you’ve read any of my posts during the summer, you’d know I was still bullish when most people weren’t, and here’s why.
"Perfection resides in simplicity." Every cycle, despite the small differences that happen with each bull market, shows similar behavior. We bottom out around 1.5 years before the halving and top out roughly 1.5 years after it. No one knows exactly what will happen in between or where the bottom or top will be, but you can safely navigate the four-year cycles with these metrics in mind. I’m more focused on how long I’ll hold my bags after the halving rather than waiting for BTC to hit a particular target.
If you look at many renowned analysts and their predictions for the equities market a couple of years ago, 99% of them were dead wrong. The same thing will happen with BTC. But the halving and liquidity cycles? Those are pretty damn precise.
I won’t be holding any crypto into 2026, and I plan to short all sorts of meme coins as we gradually enter the bear market that year. PlanB blocked me because I pointed out the flaws in his model. Zerohedge blocked me too, for calling them FUD spreaders during the bear market—and I’m fine with that.
After seven years in crypto and countless mistakes navigating this simple map, I’ve drawn my own conclusions. I’m no longer falling for overly bullish predictions and deceptive models. Greed is a profit-taking killer, and fear is an opportunity-seizing one. Be cautious of these influencers and their wild predictions during bull markets.
There’s no way BTC is going to $500,000 this cycle, and there’s no fucking way the bear market low will be $100,000.
The pain of watching your portfolio get wrecked week after week during a bear market is way worse than selling a little early. No one ever died from taking profits, but believe me when I say: as a crypto investor, going into a bear market with empty pockets is painful as fuck.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian