It's been already one month since Bitcoin has had its long awaited third halving, and that means increased scarcity for the number one cryptocurrency by market capital, also generating a price appreciation expectancy from traders, investors and crypto enthusiasts, right in the middle of one of the biggest global crisis that I have experienced.
It has had its black swan event in March, thanks to the Corona plandemic, when it felt sharply towards the $5,000 area, and recovered quite fast from the COVID-19 black hole. That might have been the last time we saw BTC under $7k...or not. As expected, after the halving Bitcoin experienced a slight pull back, and was quite fast eaten by investors and true believers getting into green territory fast.
It's having quite a dull period though, and this month of June doesn't look like the one of last year at all. Last year, during June, Bitcoin has had its mini bull run and the year before it has also recorded a nice price appreciation during the hottest months of summer. Now it feels like bulls and bears are wearing masks and practice social distance.
Will 2020 replicate the past two-three years from a price action perspective?
Probably not even God knows for sure, as this year seems to be the year of uncertainty, FUD, black swans, financial, social and spiritual madness, and the year I will for sure remember as the one I wear a mask in public for the first time, and filled a personal statement to get out of the house.
If we were to look left, to the history of price evolution for BTC, the halving has always been a catalyst for a prolonged bull market, and the last one took it close to $20,000, BTC starting its climb towards that peak from around $400, registered at the moment of the second halving. The question now is how long will it take BTC to climb that peak again? I doubt it would take long though but, I also doubt it will do that this year.
My reasoning for that is that, the way I see it retail investors don't have that much powder anymore to throw at BTC and push it upwards. I see that in my country, I see it in other European countries as well, and probably USA sits also on pretty similar shaky waters. There are quite many paralyzed business sectors, unemployment is on the rise, and BTC hasn't proved yet to be a safe haven, or a better than anything investment.
Some say that this bull market will be driven by financial institutions and not retail investors, as it happened it 2017, and they might be right. My gut feeling tells me though that we are waiting for them for too long to moon BTC again. I guess they would have rushed in the wild west of assets a few years ago, when they could buy it for $3,000 if it was that attractive.
To answer the question in the title I will say that Bitcoin will do the opposite of what it did in the last three years, and it will go South in the next two months or so. Not too South but, I believe we will see BTC at $7k again. As long there is this world uncertainty caused by the Corona pandemic I doubt we will have any bull run, and some are even fearing another rise on infections charts(which don't really reflect reality) and a decline in price.
Do I have any technical analysis to back my statements? No, I'm not Alessio Rastani...
That's purely what my gut feeling tells me, and how I perceive the psychology of the market. Not too many outsiders are asking me about it lately either, and you know, when a non crypto person asks about crypto you can tell it's bulls time. Waiting for your take on the direction of BTC for the next couple of months so don't be shy sharing it.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian