Can you remember the $20,000 and sub $20,000 calls for BTC of just a few months ago? I sure do... There were people both on Leofinance and on twitter as well who believed that Bitcoin will soon "sub $30k" and we will have a multi year bear market.
What did actually happen?
After BTC touched and almost claimed $70,000 it has basically been on a free fall for over two months catching the floor at around $35,000. That spot was to me the higher low on "the grand time scheme" that bitcoin needed to continue its super cycle...
Yes, I still believe we are in a super cycle and I no longer think retail has any involvement for that matter. We're mere ants in the lions arena. Lately, Terra has announced that it plans on accumulating $10 billion worth of BTC as a reserve for its UST.
Just last week, the finance minister of Russia said that they're willing to accept bitcoin as a payment for their exported natural resources to "friendly countries".
All of that coupled with higher inflation, higher consumer goods prices and societal turmoil has pushed Bitcoin into a higher level of mass adoption and recognition as hard money.
Somehow, if you look at your purchasing power and the price of bitcoin it seems that it is jut keeping pace with inflation, we can't say that "we gained much true value" in dollar terms. On the other hand we can't say we have had a proper bear market either and we won't even have one any time soon...
We're less than two years away from another halving which will slash mining BTC rewards in half leading to just 3.125 BTC per mined block. That's what you call scarcity, and I'd say that Bitcoin is now at the point of confirmation, where it has to and somehow also doing what's it's meant to do.
Acting as people's money(Canada freedom convoy, Ukraine etc), hedging against financial and societal turmoil and being used as an exchange currency as well is what's been doing lately, but there's more to that. There wasn't basically any point for the so called bear market we had to continue, cuz who was there to sell anymore?...
You know what also screams bull market and a most certainly end of this short lived bear one? The fact that retail isn't yet excited about the pump, like literally all over the place with it... I bet most of them consider it a failed rally.
I believe that the four years cycles as we knew them are over and that we have entered a new phase for Bitcoin and the whole blockchain industry. I'm not expecting bitcoin at $100,000 any time soon and I don't even want that. I kind of had enough with the boom and bust cycles.
Mature assets don't behave like that. I also consider that somehow the hard part of the process is just getting started as we're gaining more and more attention from both investors and legislators. Fun times ahead for sure, though.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian