Being a bear in 2022 paid off handsomely. I wish I had been one of those who shorted the crypto market, but unfortunately, I was too stubborn to believe that the bull market was over and too enamored with the "super cycle" narrative. It seems like the super cycle is dead, and even Willy Woo, the father founder, isn't vocal about it anymore.
The crypto market shifted from bearish to bullish in November 2022, one year after the previous bull market's peak. It seems you can only live as a bear for about a year in crypto. Certain coins like PEPE and a few AI ones have already experienced their mini bull runs, but the show is far from over.
In fact, it's just beginning. I've personally mentioned multiple times over the past few months that I believe this current cycle will resemble the 2015-2017 one, unless a black swan event occurs and resets all the gradual build-up.
According to the Wall Street Journal, bankrupt FTX is making efforts to revive its flagship international cryptocurrency exchange, as CEO John Ray stated. You know what this means to me?
First of all, it's a sign that the times when everyone has a chance to make money in crypto, regardless of what they bet on, are back. And it also makes me ponder how terrible we are at forgetting bad things. FTX is the cancer of all cancers in crypto, and it seems to be coming back to life.
Apparently, FTX has miraculously recovered $7 billion of investors' funds, and now we'll probably have FTX2, scamming even more clueless individuals in the next bull run. Bull runs are euphoric times when the majority of crypto market participants don't pay much attention to charts, sentiment, or fundamentals, and they pour money into all sorts of crap.
This leads to many of them losing a significant amount of money. The trend is your friend, until it's not. I'm not sure who originally said this quote, but it holds a lot of truth. Trends make you money, or they make followers of whatever... even when those trends clearly seem to be hitting a wall.
Let's consider the examples of Bitconnect and FTX, two bad actors in the crypto space. If one had bought the FTT coin or the Bitconnect coin when the trends started gaining traction and sold the hype, they would have made a substantial amount of money.
So, what's the trend in 2023? It's quite evident, even if you don't like it (been there, done that). You should know that if you jump on board with this trend early, you'll be rewarded.
Specifically, BlackRock noted that corporate awareness and incorporation of AI had witnessed a significant rise in 2023. The firm’s charts show that the latest round of earning calls mentioned AI 14,000 times.
BlackRock also observed that S&P 500 gains now focus on a few tech stocks. This trend indicates that AI and other “mega forces” can produce returns even when the macro environment provides few other opportunities.
The firm suggested that the latest growth in AI is driven by advances in computational power, data, and machine learning, and companies are increasingly integrating AI to automate tasks, boost productivity, and fuel innovation. It said that companies are employing AI experts and using AI to automate tasks and increase productivity.
Not a fan of BlackRock and not a fan of AI either, but I've had enough of being poor so I've placed my bets on AI coins for this cycle. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not, but I've come to the conclusion that the trend can really be your friend when spotted early and taking the opportunities it lies in front of you.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian