The world is evolving rapidly, but not all changes are readily apparent or immediately impactful. Our current reality is vastly different from the early 2000s, and even more distinct from the 1980s. Just imagine what 2050 might hold...
AI is a hot topic lately, and rightfully so. NVDA's $100 surge yesterday exemplifies the excitement. The S&P 500, particularly NVDA, has witnessed an explosive rise. This might seem puzzling considering technical recessions in Germany and Japan, and whispers of similar woes in America.
One question often pops into my head during recession talks: are we analyzing the right data? Are traditional metrics still truly defining in today's world? Just a thought...
Speaking of AI, did you know the IRS reportedly uses it to access every American bank account, potentially identifying tax evaders? A recent whistleblower interview claims that in 2023, the IRS used this system to recover over half a billion dollars in undeclared income from American citizens.
Personally, I find taxes immoral, useless, and ultimately a form of government extortion through fear and punishment. Non-payment can land you in jail in America, yet no one asks "who invented the IRS or the Federal Reserve?" and why aren't tax evaders turning to Bitcoin?
And they will, eventually. Bitcoin might become the standard at some point. While I don't advocate for an exclusive Bitcoin world, I don't see the dollar lasting forever.
As Arthur Hayek stated, "we need to experiment with money." That's precisely what Bitcoin and Hive represent. It's encouraging to see HBD gaining traction as a currency in some Latin American countries. I don't believe in a single, universally accepted, and volatile payment system.
However, Bitcoin's volatility is positive in the sense that it has consistently strengthened against the dollar over time. What was once a $1 Bitcoin is now 0.000019 BTC, and DOGE might well reach $1 soon.
A few years ago, I predicted countries battling for Bitcoin dominance in terms of hashing power and coin distribution. Blockchain may be locationless, but mining and ownership have geographical aspects.
Donald Trump, once an anti-Bitcoin voice, seems to be warming up to it. He still pushes the "one strong currency" narrative, but has accepted Bitcoin as an alternative and asset class.
Europe, particularly the ECB, isn't as friendly towards Bitcoin, calling its value "on a straight path to 0." I wonder where the euro will be if that happens...
Despite official recession talk, markets like Germany's are reaching all-time highs. I don't have the answer, but markets, including Bitcoin, are climbing the "wall of worry" and might implode sooner than expected, "quite surprisingly." When even grandmas discuss crypto and "flying dogs," it's time to exit.
I don't believe in absolutes. The dollar won't vanish overnight, nor will crypto. Sentiment-driven market cycles won't cease any time soon, making money in crypto (or equities) achievable if you control your emotions and embrace contrarian thinking.
That's all for now. Have a great Friday, and until next time!
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian