As we close out the month of June and with that the first half of the year, our attention now turns to what the second half of 2023 will bring.
Last year (2022) was incredibly tough on all markets but the first half of 2023 has been rather optimistic. In the US, inflation has come down significantly although not at the 2% target level and we finally had a Fed meeting without an interest rate hike. Wow that does not mean it is a pivot, it is still a significant change in tone and direction.
On the bright side, bitcoin is up over 50% year to date and the institutional adoption has been overwhelmingly positive. While some may look at the rest of crypto with huge question marks regarding the regulatory future, I’m rather optimistic that when push comes to shove some type of regulatory clarity will be a good thing long-term. Nobody can deny though that bitcoin doing well generally translates to the rest of the crypto market doing well.
The main things I’ll be watching for in the second half of the year will be the Fed’s decision on interest rates as well as any further banking collapses. Things may seem quiet on that front but I don’t think we’re out of danger just yet. The silver lining though is every time a bank fails people seem to flee to bitcoin. that may not be the type of bull run we want but people don’t adopt new currencies because they want to, they do it because they have to.
All other things considered, I’m generally quite bullish on the next year or so leading up to the bitcoin halving. I’m not saying we’re going to go to the moon or pump before then, but if 2023 is a mirror of 2019 and 2024 ends up being a mirror for 2020, that could bring some exciting times ahead.
What do you think? Where do you see the market going over the next six months?
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