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It seems currently moving in this direction. Bitcoin's market value has dropped from 73% in early January to 66.7%. In half a month:
The decline in the bit proportion was mainly due to the altcoin rupture this week, especially in big market value areas such as Polkadot, Cardano, links and dots, which are up 83% this week, and highs were reached. 19.05U, there was in the last two weeks the increase was as high as 105%, and the link also set a new high of 22.6U yesterday.
There are also defi leaders in the community at home and abroad on the title map today. Most of them have multiplied in the past month or week, and they seem to ignore Bit's current turbulent and slightly downhill state.
To many people's intuition, the btc decline would collapse the whole copycat market, but it is not. This is actually quite normal. Markets are often not very synchronized. If you look at the last 17 year trend, the high point of the big cake happened on 17 December, while the ether high happened on 6 January, there are lots of hut highs still to come.
Back then, alt was given nearly a month of show time, not to mention whether we are now at a 17 year high. .
Therefore, for the next alt market, I am inclined to think that it is still possible to have some imagination. At the same time, I need to realize that the more the bull market moves into the next stage, the less logic the market will have at all, just like factoring in the current transaction costs on uniswap. The cost of gas is excessive, but does not affect the doubling of the Union.
I think a blogger is now talking about taking ether bits, picking dots, picking aave / snx and other defi leaders. While I also talk about it, it is probably more suitable for markets that talk about growth logic and track sectors.
As the market becomes increasingly indifferent about military ethics, I feel there is no need to limit attention to this, especially in the short term especially in this country. It may indeed have a highlight, but it may not need to extend the time a little. A chestnut-Litecoin, which used to be all kinds of pride, and what a paypal treasure four is, but this week it also fell 19%, and a two-week increase of only 3.5%, which is not as good as the performance of the big cake during the surprise period, so Even though you immersed in the atmosphere of this rising market hype, you need to look at this target a little longer. Looking good this week doesn't mean you'll be the most beautiful next week. For ltc, objectively, cottage season continues, there will be some shows.
From a data indicator, although we have seen some signals from the copycat season above, it is likely that copycat season has not yet fully arrived. This indicator comes from an offshore site called blockchaincenter, which provides copycat season indicators:
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/#how90
The black line in the image above shows that when the value is greater than 75, it is the hottest period of copycat season, and when the value is less than 25, it indicates that the market as a whole is dominated by Bitcoin.
Currently, the ratio is 33, and there is a trend of transitioning from bitcoin season to alternative season. This is also one of the factors we think the alt market will attract in the future.
This indicator is also quite interesting. It compares the ups and downs of the top 50 targets to the market capitalization and ups and downs of Bitcoin over the same period. The indicator value is the target number whose increase exceeds Bitcoin. Among the 50 targets. 37 out of 50 out of 50 outperform slightly, which means that we are in a blooming cottage period.
Looking at the picture above, the last time that meets the standards of the copycat season was in August-September 2020, which was the busiest defi period (although many coins were multiplying after many times, the defi circle was the most popular at that time. developed into a game between large households).
According to data from the website, Bitcoin's increase in the last 90 days was 188.5%. The left side of the image below exceeds Bitcoin's rise, and the right side is there:
It can be seen that currently 16 targets have been exceeded.
The slight increase in the last month was 53.7%, and 23 targets have outperformed the pie:
Of course, the data mentioned today, in my opinion, is more of a function to reflect the current state of the market:
1. Maybe a year makes you feel like you have to allocate Bitcoin in full position for only a few months [狗头]. Those in the circle and those who aren't big fans can still look for more possibilities, let alone at least two. From this picture, Ether's performance is better.
2. Recently, many people said that they only fried the leader and only withdrew new coins, but look at the good performance above. In fact, they are very messy. Zil, scr and doge are no longer new coins. They seem more related. It is a concentration of chips and short-term supply and demand.
So in my opinion there will also be more targets that will pursue improvements in the future. This possibility is very high, and it ultimately leads to the speculative strategy mentioned in our title:
For children's shoes without an accurate target, pay more attention to the types of targets that need to penetrate the previous or adjacent heights. This limit may be this year. A better alt may be historical altitude. After breaking, it will double the market in the short term. .
The beet effectively broke the 20,000 mark last year, and nearly doubled in two weeks. I think a lot of alts also have this "intention". Take the point for example:
It hit a November high of 5.8U in late December, and immediately broke out of successive September highs.
This kind of pattern exists in many alts in this wave, and there is still a chance of winning under the fake season trend. For children's shoes that are still confused today, you can consider thinking like this. I think that should be better than following various communities blindly. Better to place a bet after listening to the password.
Of course speculation is also very erratic, so pay attention to stop loss settings.
Conclusion
1. Increasingly crazy markets, often logically ineffective, and a two-fold increase in the short term has nothing to do with technical and ecological strength.
2. The better the market, the more you feel that it all doesn't make sense. Courage and luck can determine your profitability. Despite today's speculation and optimism about the alt market, you should always remind yourself to follow the market. Amazed, remember that we have a long way to go, the following words encourage one another:
The key to successful long-term returns lies in investing in times of crisis, and the ability to invest in times of crisis lies in extreme caution in times of peace.