Down.
I know you don't want to hear it, but prepare for the bear. Here's why:
- Mt. Gox. If the announcements actually mean something this time, there is about to be more than $2.8 billion worth of bitcoin dumped on the market on December 15th. The morons refunding the Mt. Gox hack apparently don't even have the sense to stagger the release so the market doesn't have to absorb it all at once. There have been multiple delays on this Mt. Gox refund process, but I just feel like this time they are going to do it. Why? Because the shills like Elliotrades are super bullish and the market likes to make people look stupid.
- Institutional buyers don't move markets. The institutions got in around $13k. The current price of bitcoin already prices in the $500 billion we've heard about from Microstrategies, Square, et al. You can bet that new $400 million that Microstrategies is preparing to put into the market is at a discount. They are probably buying up the coins from Mt. Gox.
- This ain't 2017. Before the mania of 2017, the market was in an upswing with no significant dips. We already got a signifiant dip this December, which shows enough weakness that buyers won't be able to take BTC past $20k.
- Bitcoin always fills holes. Bitcoin always takes the long way around when it prints new price discoveries. We have a huge gap on the monthly chart between the current price of bitcoin and the 20-day moving average. Plus, we've already pumped away from that moving average. You can bet we are going back down to touch it at some point very soon. All we need is a catalyst.
- People are broke. You've got pandemic stimulus benefits running out on January 1, 2021 including rent and mortgage moratoriums. You can bet that folks are liquidating whatever they can to get little Timmy one Christmas gift then try to figure out where they're going to live in 2 weeks. Yeah, I get it that folks worried about rent aren't the ones buying bitcoin. But the ones who need rent control the market, because they provide the labor that creates everyone else's profits.
- Technical signs. All technical signs point to a downturn. Find me a bullish one. Go ahead! I dare you! I know you don't want to hear it; neither do I. This is the time that makes good traders — getting past what you want to happen and looking at what the market is screaming at you.
- Pick your own reason. I just like odd numbers, and I love lists of 7, so you put your own damn reason here.
The one thing that could reverse my opinion is if Trump decides to pull a PR stunt and give everybody a Christmas stimulus package executive order. For some reason I don't see this happening. As a matter of fact, I think that vile Treasury Secretary may even give us coal in our stockings in the form of attempted regulation on crypto before Christmas.
Also, if we hit $13k, where the 20-day MA is, you should be happy. You get a discount on bitcoin and you can bet the price will rebound from that level like a trampoline.