The Black Swan of crypto?
You know, we lament and complain on the days when the markets trade sideways and things are "boring", but this shift has been on the cards for the last few weeks and a couple of analysts that I follow saw it coming. Many of the people that put out videos on crypto trading aren't really worth it, but there were at least three that got this movement spot on.
Just two days ago I mentioned to a fellow Hiver that BTC has been rumoured to be on the way down to $19k and if it happens people will lose their minds, it's true that when people get emotionally involved in trading that it does happen. The previous massive black swan events and stock market crashes ruined businesses and people's lives so it's not that this is a new phenomenon.
After the first time that I panic sold my BTC at the freaking low and lost a large chunk of my investment, I decided that it really was a bullshit move. Especially when I then got to watch BTC climb to $69k! I did some reading and found some people that seemed to know their shit in the industry (better than I knew mine anyway) and decided that I need to do the opposite of what my emotional knee jerk reaction was urging me to do. It's been a very odd thing to completely reverse my own psychology and deny my emotional instincts, but when I have, it's been rewarding.
Something very weird happened yesterday - well it struck me as very weird, perhaps it wouldn't seem weird to someone else. My whole trading portfolio had been slashed in half so when I saw that something had sold at the prices I had listed, I was very intrigued and slightly confused to know what it was. It was Tron (Trx) which I had one sale listed at $0,08 that went through - not for much, it was worth about $11. Seeing as everything else had lost between 30% and 60% of it's value, I kept that in mind while listening to videos on what was shaking out with UST and Luna.
There is one guy who was watching Twitter and saw the exact same Tweet emerge from many people and he claimed that this was a co-ordinated attack to see if they could unpeg UST - which did happen and the entire market reacted to it in a big way. Apparently over $1Billion went poof up in smoke in liquidations in less than 24 hours. That's quite a scary statistic and if that's the case, then is this possibly going to happen with other "stable" coins? It made me ask the same question about HBD but I'm hoping that HBD is obscure enough and not in the limelight to catch that kind of attention...but the price of Hive reacted to the markets falling as well. I'm going to be approaching it as an opportunity more than seeing it as a loss because I fully believe it will recover, but it's going to take time. I'm not great with patience, but with crypto, you have to be.
So back to Trx. Why would that sell order have gone through? I had a look at the price of Trx this morning compared to all the other coins in the same region on CoinGecko and the price had barely moved. Even now, it is $0,07. Why would that be the case? Why would Trx not be impacted the same way that everything else was? This particular analyst mentioned that somewhere he had seen that they might be targetting Tron next. I can't understand why they would, but the fact that this particular token was acting strangely compared to the rest has stood out in my mind. Anyone care to give me their ideas? Obviously I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but it seemed very out of character compared to the movement of practically everything else.
We are in a very strange time internationally and the markets are very volatile, but I still don't believe that BTC is going away or many other of the coins for that matter. There's going to be a lot of movement now as people try to consolidate, buy, sell, dump etc. It's the first huge drop of this magnitude that I've been "in" so to speak and if I hadn't changed the way I approach crypto, I probably would be sad right now having essentially lost more than half of my investment. I'm rather approaching this as an opportunity to expand on my investment instead of getting dispondent or changing my behaviour on Hive or on exchanges.
Has this changed the way you think or feel about crypto? Let me know in the comments.
Photo is mine