Most investors see Bitcoin as being at or near its bottom throughout 2022;
But could the true suffering still be on the way?
In the second quarter of 2026, the weak hands may be completely flushed out and long-term successful investors will be the only ones remaining.
In this article, I will discuss the following topics:
If Bitcoin can go lower?
When could the true low be created?
And what I am going to do about it.
Market Summary – There Are Cracks Below The Surface Of An Apparent Strong Market
Bitcoin keeps hitting significant resistance and continues to hit lows on whatever trading range it is within.
Price momentum appears to be continuing to slow.
👉 The real truth of the matter is:
This isn't accumulation, this looks more like distribution.
If that is indeed what this is, then changes for further price declines exist.
The 4-Year Cycle Tells Us Historical Trends.
The Bitcoin market cycles appear to follow the following repeatable framework:
Halving
Prior Bull Run
Euphoria
Peak of Current Cycle
Slowly bleeding down
Bear Market
Panic
Final Bottom
👉 Using this historical data:
The peak likely occurred in late 2025.
The real low for Bitcoin may be determined around the fourth quarter of 2026.
Thus:
👉 Bitcoin is likely to trade lower within Q2 and continue to between Q2 and final bottom of approximately one year.
🌍 The Macroeconomics Have Went Downhill
❌ High Levels of Interest Rates
Persisting high levels of interest rates makes for tight liquidity
→ There is limited buying of risk assets — such as Bitcoin
❌ Global Uncertainty
The geopolitical tensions & inflation currently in our world will cause many to avoid risk
→ Investors will become risk-averse.
Some metrics are looking bullish, but not so much that I can get overly bullish on them yet.
Currently, MVRV is near neutral ⇒ Indicates potential undervaluation.
Long-term holders are offloading — Increase selling pressure
👉 Typical for this to happen leading into final bottom not from it.
📉 Most Important Levels I Am Watching
Resistance: ~ 74K
Weak Zone: 60K
Strong Support: 50K – 55K
👉 My assumption:
I believe Bitcoin needs one more flush out before it is ready for a meaningful reversal.
💭 My Strategy (No B.S.)
I am not being blindly bullish here!
👉 Here is what I've been doing:
Not deploying capital blindly yet
I have been doing DCA; however, being very situation-specific
Holding cash for the next flush
👉 My Rule:
"Buy fear – but only after it becomes panic."
We have fear; however not true panic.
And there are usually bottoms formed during a period of panic.
⚔ Unpopular Opinion
At this time, most people are still using the "Buy the dip" strategy.
However, Institutional funds typically use the "Wait for confirmation & then buy" strategy.