THG contracted with a growing UK market, tech driven, and has released its 25th year financials that show positive evidence of recovery.
📊THG FY25 Financials - Way Better Than First Forecasted
THG's FY25 analysis created positive operating results with an adjusted EBITDA of £76.6M vs Analyst expectations.
👉 This indicates:
Able to execute more smoothly;
Better operational focus.
Even though £76.6M is not really a huge upside or downside compared to other companies in the sector, it is yet another indicator that THG is headed in the correct direction!
📈 THG FY26 - Strong Growth Prospects
THG is forecasting for FY26:
EBITDA of ~£101M
30% YOY Growth
Margins of 4.2%-7.4%.
👉 Margin recovery phases will create bullish investor sentiment.
🥤 Nutrition Segment - Basis of THG's Future
Myprotein continues to be the main contributor for THG growth with projected growth in mid-to-high single digits.
THG is working to:
Grow its business into offline markets
Find licensing opportunities
Develop multi-category offerings
👉 The diversification of THG revenues will lessen the reliance upon E-Commerce platforms.
💰 Cash & Potential for Future Growth
Cash Flow (FYE26): £15M - £30M
Possible driving factor: VAT ruling for basket-based proteins
If successful with HMRC, this could provide a large cash injection to improve the financial position.
⚖️ The Optimistic Case vs The Pessimistic Case
🟢 The Optimistic Case
Improving margin
Strong sales in Nutrition Segment
Improved cash flow forecast
Potential upside through VAT claim
🔴 The Pessimistic Case
Execution risk
Competitive online retailers
Limited growth
🧠 MY OPINION
THG plc represents a higher risk / higher reward opportunity for my portfolio.
a diamond in the rough?
Still too much risk/reward?
Please let me know your opinion in the comments.