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Well... driving and trading, obviously not at the same time! I've been driving quite a bit since I've gotten back to Australia, and I've sort of come to think of some of the parallel behaviours of people with respect to the two activities that I find quite interesting. Of course, like all non-identical comparisons and analogies, the model doesn't completely hold up... but are just sort of interesting things that I find mildly interesting.

What I have found with driving... especially in some of the larger cities, is this concept of "winning" the traffic race! You see cars expending petrol to race off from starts, and ducking and weaving through traffic just to get that single car length or two ahead... and all of that wasted energy and added risk leads to very little in terms of gain. Often, they are just the first to get to the next stop light... and everyone else arrives a couple of seconds later. But even in the best case scenario where you are going to be about 10 percent faster than everyone else on the road, you are only going to save a handful of minutes in an hour drive! For so much expended effort?... is it worth it? Just leave a touch earlier and get there where you get there!

I see the same thing with day/wash traders... all expending so much effort to get a few percentage points of arbitrage or scalping. Of course, there are sometimes some big profits to be made.... but lets not kid ourselves, most of that is reserved for the big players! For most people, it is just going to be a sink that is both risky and energy/time intensive. Better to be early, and just coast along and get there where you get there... after all, the bet is that some of this technology at least is hoping to change up some fundamental things. In that case, the problem is mostly figuring out which ones are the ones that are likely to do that, and that means it is more likely to be those that have some real fundamental difference with the existing system... I tend to bet more on infrastructure and principles over specific "app-layer" use case.

I guess trying to pick the early projects is the equivalent of leaving early... there is sometimes a perception that new-comers to our weird little crypt- world need to find the next "Ethereum" killer or something like that... and that does lead many to chase projects that are being heavily marketed as the next thing to jump on before anyone else finds out. But just consider that even Bitcoin and Ethereum are not that old... and (in the case of Ethereum more than Bitcoin at the moment) still able to evolve or designed with modular evolution from conception.

But do people NEED to chase those projects for the long term? Probably not, considering that most of the world isn't even anywhere close to interacting or even just being aware of the fundamental concepts and problems that have spawned these solutions. So, even now... it is the equivalent of leaving early... and there isn't any real need to drive/trade in a reckless manner!

But some will love the thrill of the chase and the glory and adrenaline shock of "winning"... and for those people, perhaps those trading wins are worthwhile... personally, I do also like taking long term lottery ticket bets as well... well, even more lottery than the "old school" crypto projects.... and a touch of basket-spreading doesn't hurt either, even if it is all still within the crypto asset space (I would recommend that there is diversification into more asset classes!).

... but I think it would be dangerous to risk everything on these junkie shots... like driving, you are burning petrol (funds) and running headlong into risk for mostly marginal gains. That said, there isn't any reason to not buy an occasional lottery ticket... but not with your entire networth!

I can also be found cross-posting at:
Hive
Steem
Publish0x

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