Has The Next Bull Run Started?
The markets have been eager for a rally for a while now. 2022 was horrible not only for crypto but also the stock market. Many companies went out of business, had massive layoffs (that still continue) and inflation ran rampant at 9.1% at its peak.
Today we see inflation numbers returning to better numbers. The target is a 2%-3% annual inflation rate. For the most part since 1982 we have seen that inflation number hit rather well. Sure there are some higher ones of 4%-5% and then lower ones of which one was even negative in 2009 which shiz honestly exploded.
Today we got the CPI number of 6.5% which is still high but shows things are coming back down. However as we have seen in the history of things if the fed backs off too soon (which would most likely be now) then inflation returns with a vengeance!
The next move we are waiting for is what the fed will do next. My honest hopes are that they target 50 points again. If they don't I could see inflation staying higher then 3% for 2023 and also it returning to maybe record highs.
As long as Inflation continues to come down and the fed starts backing off interest rate hikes I see the market turning majorly bullish again.
The Wipe Out
Market cycles are common and ones we are going through right now are as well. These cycles are used to trim fat in bloated companies (Layoffs), to filter out what's truly junk while the strong and ones setup correctly survive (FTX blow up, LUNA blow up etc) and overall just give everyone a reality check that they are not the worlds smartest investor.
It's easy to feel on top of the world and think you know what you're doing when you're in a bull market. However those who are making money in a bear market are truly the masterminds. If you're making gains in a bear market, in your business and your crypto during a bear market then you're going to be set when that bull market shows up.
Is The Next Bull Here?
Some are speculating that the bull has just started. For myself I don't see it. It very well could be the start but often the start of a bull is a steady increase for months and then it blows up. Not a steady decline or holding and then it blows up.
We are also seeing investors starting to return a bit to investing and less into the bond market which has taking a bit of a beating in itself as of late. There's a lot of unknowns still in the world as well. However that's one thing I personally think that makes crypto stand out from the rest of the monetary systems we have.
It can be freely traded (for the most part unless a government cracks down on it)
It can be traded 24/7 unlike stocks which have a very short set of hours and honestly is corrupt AF
It is sought after by all and is a central currency for all
The Development
We are only now starting to see some projects from the last bull run finally enter into Alpha and start being released. I don't see many of these going full blown till Summer and even as late as 2024 still as development, testing and scaling takes time. That means most of these applications that should be taking on Finances, Gaming and Social media are still not ready. We see this clearly across everything crypto still that there's still a lack of projects launched that were a big rally point for people wanting to use them back in 2022.
Do you feel we just entered the bull market? Or is it another fake out before we get the Fed rate hike in what looks to be Feb 1st.