Hive is a small ecosystem made up of just 155 million dollars in market cap at the time of writing this and has grown a rather large amount over the last few days. However the kicker is and I'll show you below here in just a moment on the graph is that we are not even to where we where at the start of this year.
Yes, a year ago hive was at $0.35 - $0.40 and this is when bitcoin was small as well as every other crypto and the big talk of the town was ETF approvals for Bitcoin.
This starts to throw things into perspective about what I'm going to talk about next and that's that I'm not getting excited about hive prices until we hit $0.50 and hold above it and let me show you why.
If we look at the graph above the first line (the lower one) is roughly around the $0.50 mark. You'll see that this is about where hive stayed for a good few months back in 2022 it held this level after the bull cycle was over for the period of about 5 months which is a rather long time and why I put it at the base layer for hive to start to even consider that we have hit a promising bull run for hive.
Now the next line at $1 is a very bullish case for hive if it holds over it. This cycle if you average it out would be what last bull runs case looked like for a good year. Remove the crazy temp pump to almost $3 and you'll get around a $1 average for the year. This would be a very bullish case for Hive.
I also want to make it very clear that anit no rally car driving up these prices right now lol. Hive needs to seriously get better at managing it's DHF funds. It also needs to reduce the HBD interest from 15% to 5%-8% max. and now sure people will complain about it but you have to realize that the high 15% right now is kicking up some MAJOR inflation on the Hive token itself right now which is suppressing the hive price.
Go check out the accounts that are saying to keep it high and you'll most likely notice where most of their investment is. You all need to dig deeper into these things for a true decentralized DHF to work but 90% are lazy and sadly that will most likely never change.
This reduction but still good APR on HBD will not only help stabilize things even more and bring it down to more reasonable levels is that it will also help the record inflation of hive that is happening. This is being caused by people taking HBD and converting it into hive. Which in most cases has to be done in order for people to trade it as there's really go good or even any pairs to convert HBD into another crypto without going through hive token first.
This method above will start to build a strong ecosystem and taking action on things like over spending of DHF funds and requiring applications to start building and growing their own funds to support their hosting fees etc.
Building hive strong will also come from the applications being developed on top of them. Instead of gaining applications lately hive has actully been losing applications with the issue of 3speak being shut down now for over a month one of the critical parts of hives apps. Which honestly they need to seriously be running at least a few ads on that site, video or banner ads nothing crazy but some to cover costs so they can stop extracting it from hive and instead start to build real wealth which is what people really care about.
On top of that we also still have many games in beta or even Alpha stages and we lost a few of them during the long bear market for the last few years. That being said there is promise in terms of there being a lot of potential to launch new games and apps on hive coming in 2025. However these developers do need to get their butts in gear and get these things released. Not only that but it needs some solid marketing on them OUTSIDE of hive itself. Many projects look for funding and their user base from hive without really attracting anyone outside of hive and when they do.... they are often shunned for some crazy reason.
Splinterlands once again has the potential of being a powerhouse for the hive ecosystem. The game feels back on track but still some room for fixing but it's in a far better spot then it was just a year ago. It will still take work and effort but a quick snap bull run on it will offset that all and it doesn't even have to be a huge one at this point. Mainly it's going to come down to companies like this and applications to be smart about their funds. For example there's no reason if you company sells 20 million dollars worth of assets that it should be struggling. Even if just 20% of that was put into a trusted interest bond on even savings accounts it would be making enough to cover at least a months worth of operating costs which could be constantly scaled up until it's unstoppable.
All of that being said lets start building, growing and supporting projects that bring funds INTO the hive eco system and not out of it. Lets build the correct hive we have all dreamed of and it starts with your actions of votes, witness votes etc. Get proactive!