Today is the day we have all been waiting for. Well I mean I guess it's really not that big of a deal unless you are mining bitcoin yourself. The effects of the halving normally take a good month to start to be felt by the markets but that might actully be faster this time around being that ETFs have been gobbling up BTC at a much more rapid rate then what is being printed.

*Screenshot pulled from Nicehash.

Miners

Miners are normally the ones most heavily affected by this. You're essentially taking your profits from mining and cutting them in half. As the block reward will go from 6.25 BTC down to 3.125 BTC per block. That means the print is only 450 BTC per day compared to the 900 BTC per day it was pumping out.

That comes out to a total of close to 28 million dollars being printed each day in new inflation at current prices. That's actully a pretty large amount of money but it was double that before the halving took place so you now have the same amount of miners battling over half the BTC once this halving takes place.

Now of course miners also collect reward fees on top of this which can add up to a decent amount of BTC as well especially when the network becomes congested which adds up to more value for miners and ultimately is what's going to pay for miners in the future (aka about 12 years from now) as the reward per block will be so low.

What Happens After Halving's

What we saw was a drastic sell off which seems to always happen just before a halving takes place. This most likely seems to be because the price of the halving event is normally priced in months ahead of time and thus people take their profits just before the news of the halving takes place.

However about a month or two after that the markets feel the pressure of the reduced supply and normally start their upward rally. This often times pushes BTC double of what it was meaning we should by years end top out at $120,000 if those factors played out again.
*As a side note since 2022 I've been saying our next top would be $114,000 and well I'm kind of still sticking to that number coming end of 2024 or some time in 2025.

Miners Profits

Now we do have to go back to miners profits again. If these more centralized powerhouses of miners are not making money anymore they will shut down at least some of their operations or move on to mine something else that is profitable at the time being.

Many of these places also have massive solar and wind farms which could turn their profits to selling the extra energy they produce instead of mining BTC.

The thoughts are this could cause some weird things to happen with BTC after the halving event such as maybe crashing the price instead of rallying it causing a domino effect to take place.

Mining Efficencty

Now it also has to be said that this is a rather normal process that we see. The network is designed for such a thing. As miners go offline it lowers the overall hash rate meaning less computing power is needed in order to mine these blocks and it happens at a rather decent rate that it could correct itself in a month or two.

This is currently why I feel like things will be a little rocky after this halving even and not moon right away. Of course I could be totally wrong but my bet is we shake our way down to around 50k-55k and then rally up to 114k by end of year. At least that's my own prediction. * This article is for entertainment purposes only and is nor financial advice.

What are you thoughts?

This is a chart of what has happened in the past to maybe shed some light on things.