Oh boy, the economy is in a bad spot right now. I almost regret that I bought the ETH dip; nonetheless, I will hold it till 3-digits. Everyone is talking about the upcoming Jackson Hole speech this Friday; there will be blood! And then there’s the looming China market crash. Right now, things are very bad. In the worst case, the cryptocurrency market will experience a long winter that is unlike anything we have ever seen. If China messes up their economy, the cryptocurrency crash of 2017 will look like a kindergarten tea party.
But of course, throughout the human history, every god dang day, there are people predicting and exclaiming it’s the end of the world. In the financial world, there’s no difference. Pundits will tell you the market is about to crash every single day until it eventually does. Then they’ll brag about how correct their prediction was; we’ve seen it all at this point. Still, this post is not about the Jackson Hole speech, the looming China market crash or criticizing the financial pundits. It’s actually about the 2nd estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) which is about to be released on August 25.
The revision of GDP is probably significant in deciding the next market move. I mean, if the 2nd estimate GDP shows positive, then we’re very fucked, ahead of the speech. I’m not sure how much the 2nd estimate will usually vary from the advance estimate (negative GDP growth), but if somehow the 2nd estimate shows positive GDP growth, then it’s not just the goblin town the crypto market is heading to; it might actually go straight into the winter. Remember, recession is bullish. If the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession, then the Fed will slow down the tightening or possibly pivot. But as I said before, if GDP shows signs of growth, boy, the Fed will tighten monetary policy like never before.
All the idea expressed above is just my own speculation. I’m in no way a financial or market pundit; I’m just like you. In light of that, please take this post with a grain of salt and no financial advice juice. Otherwise, you will get burned in the next market move.