Assalamu Alaikum
How are you? By Allah's grace, I'm doing very well.
Technical indications :
Bitcoin may break its key support
The price has been gradually declining since Bitcoin reached $124K+ in mid-2025.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is below 110 for many coins, which means that the market is weakening.
Some charts are showing Head and Shoulders patterns, Descending Triangles or Bearish Divergences — which can predict a potential dump.
Volume decline, trading volume has decreased significantly in the past few weeks, when the market falls into low volume, there is a big movement — which often results in a dump.
Fundamental Analysis :
US Economy and Fed Decision
While the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates again, its tone is still hawkish — meaning investors are still flocking to safe havens (like Treasury bonds). A strong dollar could lead to profit-booking in the crypto market.
Mt. Gox Refund Issue (2025)
The Mt. Gox exchange is set to return more than 100,000 bitcoins to victims, many of whom will sell them — putting direct supply pressure on the exchange.
ETF Inflows Decline
Inflows into spot BTC ETFs, which used to be in the millions of dollars per day, have now suddenly stopped or are flowing out — indicating a shift in whales’ outlook.
Market sentiment :
Entering a fear environment
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now moved into the “Fear” zone, indicating that investors are on the defensive.
Phrases like “bear market incoming”, “sell before crash” are appearing more frequently on social media.
Altcoin market disappointment
Altcoins have dumped (or are dumping) much more than Bitcoin, which usually happens before Bitcoin dumps.
So will there really be a dump? Possible signs of a dump:
Bitcoin falls below 113K-110K (including monthly closing)
Altcoin dominance decreases
New FUD (Regulation, Exchange Freeze) spreads in the market
Possible signs of recovery :
New inflows to ETFs
Bitcoin bounces back to $66K-$68K
New narratives (AI, RWA, ETH ETF, etc.) return to the market
Last words :
"Even if the market dumps, don't panic. Instead, keep a list of good projects and do DCA when the price goes down. Dumps mean opportunities — if the strategy is right." Today's discussion concludes here. I hope you've found it interesting. Please share your thoughts on today's topic. Prayers for everyone. May everyone be well.