Chart & Outlook promising
ASML as a supplier of the semiconductor industry has suffered quite a lot because of the weaker demand recently. They are market leading manufacturer of machines that Samsung, Intel or TSMC are using to produce their chips. In a Reuters report the situation was put like that:
„ASML’s latest problem is not because the AI gold rush is any less alluring. Instead, it’s because of a slower recovery of sales among the group’s customers that make smartphones and computers.“
But these issues seem to be priced in now. These days several Analysts started to recommend the dutch company again and most analysts are having a Buy rating.
If we have a look at the chart these days it has started to look interesting: The upwards trend of the past two years is still intact and we are on the way back up it seems. The ATH is still +50% away though, which makes this a very interesting turnaround bet.
Risks
Of course for this to turn out positive the economy and demand for chips has to play along and recover. If we get a recession midterm, this stock could suffer further and fall below the shown trend.
What I am doing
I have opened a speculative position in ASML. Am confident we could see the old ATH again within the next 12 months, which would be a nice double digit upside from current pice levels.
But even if we got a bigger correction midterm, I would DCA further into the stock since I think this is a strong player if you believe in digitilisation and the rise of AI. The longterm chart over the last decade doesn‘t lie.
