Strategy: Cheap, But Risky
What to do about Strategy? I keep coming back to this question these days. My trade got stopped out after the stock broke below the $250 area, which I thought would hold as support. Now we’re trading around $160, while Saylor continues to accumulate more and more BTC, slowly approaching 700k coins.
So the question is whether now is the time to step in, either with a trade or even a longer-term position. Hard to say. The stock is down about 60% from its ATH and is trading at an mNAV below 1. That means the company is valued at less than the Bitcoin it holds. Saylor has even built a billion-dollar cash reserve to cover the dividends on some of the paper they’ve issued.
All of this sounds quite robust and interesting. Still, there’s one thing that keeps bothering me: the chart. Yes, we’re still up significantly over the past two years, but the last six months have been dark red. On the six-month chart, Strategy looks like a falling knife, and as they say on Wall Street, you never try to catch one.
For now, I’ll keep watching this and decide in the coming weeks whether to get in or not, based on how the BTC price and the Strategy chart develop. This could easily turn into a 2–3x once BTC starts rallying again toward new ATHs.
