Everyone likes to Buy Low and Sell High but it’s usually far easier said than done. For people in the Crypto space and in particular, the HIVE and Splinterlands space everyone has an opinion. If you're reading my blog then I'm hoping you're interested to hear mine so, personally, when I am looking to see what is “cheap” I have a bit of a process. I like to do some comparisons of recent price history and have some ideas about WHY something might be cheap. If I can tick a few boxes and have a bit of spare change in the wallet then I’m a buyer.
HIVE has been on a great run lately and I had squirrelled away some gains in my HBD Savings Account to buy on the next dip and here we are. HIVE has been very good to me in 2021 for a number of different reasons and I would like to reinvest in the ecosystem here. Mainly because I think it’s going places and there is still a lot of upside compared to downside but for full disclosure I do have a pro-HIVE bias. I won’t ramble on about HIVE though because that’s not really what this post is about and I am pretty happy with my HIVE stake already. This post is about why I am now using some of my recent gains to accumulate SPS and some specific Splinterlands card issues.
Splintershards (SPS)
SPS is intended to be the Governance Token for the Splinterlands game and ecosystem. It is still early days but I do see Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) having a big future in Crypto more broadly. I see the SPS token a bit like a Voting or Preference Share of a traditional company but for the Splinterlands DAO as it takes shape over time. Apart from the early hype where it looked inflated I think many people don’t really value SPS because it’s been distributed initially by free airdrop and now that the early hype has worn off it does look pretty cheap to me so long as the Splinterlands Devs continue to evolve the game and the DAO. I have every reason to believe they will since they’ve built a decent track record in recent years and they’ve earned some trust. We are currently on Day 192 of a 365 day airdrop so there is a bit more SPS to come but we are now over half-way. I’d expect that once the airdrop is nearly finished people will realise the window of opportunity is closing and the SPS price will start to rally again. I’m guessing but I reckon in about 3-4 months time this might happen. So yeh, at 11 cents US it looks cheap to me. It’s also down 90% from it’s highest point...I’ll have some of that thanks!
Chaos and Reward Cards
Most of the NFTs representing playing cards of the Splinterlands game have taken a hit over the last month or so. I posted a little while back my Analysis of the Splinterlands Bear Market so I won’t rehash the over-supply that I think has caused part of the reason why these cards appear cheap, but we’ve also had a bit of a bumpy ride in the broader Crypto markets and NFTs in general which were looking a bit frothy in that back half of 2021. I wrote that analysis 15 days ago and looking at the Chaos Legion pack sales now there have been over 580K packs sold since that post, so at that rate the Chaos Legion will sell out in 6-7 months. I am expecting that sales will accelerate as we get closer to selling out so I also think Chaos Legion cards are quite likely to rally in that same 3-4 month timeframe. I believe that as the hype has been wearing off a lot of players are dumping excess Chaos Legion cards onto the market and so they currently look cheap to me – especially if you compare some of those cards to older Beta or Untamed cards with similar stats. Similarly I think the current Reward cards are also cheap because – like the SPS airdrop - people tend to not value things they get for free, so they’re being dumped too. With Reward cards there is some history of them appreciating in value once they go out of print so they are on my shopping list too!
Whether you are a player or an investor there are some pretty good reasons to be buying at these levels. Of course you should do your own research as there are certainly no guaranteed profits. There is significant risk of making losses in this space, but I am practicing what I am preaching so if you want to know what I’m doing and why then here is my reasoning!