The housing market has dropped. Sellers are slow to catching on.
The actual numbers of houses being bought and closed are at 20 year lows. And house inventory is almost back to pre-scamdemic levels. It is now a buyers market.
Black Rock CEO says that bitcoin is going to $700,000 this year.
In other words, bitcoin go up, and house price goes down, this year.
Make plans.
The housing crash
Lots of people who are watching the real estate market (and who are not trying to hype it) are saying that we are at the beginning of a crash. And often relate it to 2008. However, in 2008 there was still a need for a lot of houses, the market just became too hot, and the banks were giving out loans to anyone with a pulse. So, when the banks pulled the plug on the free money, the house prices crashed.
But, this time, although they have slowly pulled the easy money, the real problem is that we have a demographic time bomb.
If nothing else happens, all things stay the same, ¼ of all houses in America are going to change hands within a decade because boomers are moving out or moving on. There isn't a ¼ of the population looking for a house. There will be way more houses than buyers. And this continues until birthrates start going back up.
BUT! A lot more is happening. People are leaving cities, especially blue cities. Tons of people are dying suddenly, and that number is increasing. And to add a cherry to this sundae, all the immigrants are going to be leaving and taking extras with them.
Add to this that the real estate people are going to be converting commercial real estate to high end rentals, adding even more supply onto a falling market, and you can see that house prices are never going to go back up.
In the future, there will be entire housing divisions left empty, abandoned.
The idea of buying real estate as an investment is over.
The bitcoin FOMO
Bitcoin is fooling around the $100,000 price point, as bitcoin is want to do.
While, all kinds of deep pockets are announcing that they will be buying bitcoin. This just doesn't make any sense. But hey, that's bitcoin.
Anyway, at some point, bitcoin is going to be bid up because of lack of supply of people that would want to sell at $100k. Soon, the weak hands (did you ever think that people selling at $100k would be called weak hands??) will be empty, and then the bidding war starts.
If this was just the retail buyers, we would easily see $300k this summer, but it isn't just them. We have big buyers stating that they will be buying. And so, i do not know what price bitcoin is going to.
It is really easy to get into a point where no one is selling bitcoin for fiat. Bitcoin becomes unobtanium. Bitcoin enters a world where people trade it for other things (like houses, yachts,…) and the details of the transaction are just not disclosed.
(either this happens this year, 2025, or it happens in four years, 2029.)
So, bitcoin is going up, or going way, way up.
Bitcoin ⬆️ Housing ⬇️
As the price of bitcoin goes up, there will be a lot of people who will sell other assets to buy bitcoin.
All the toy haulers, campers, RVs, boats, quads, jet skis… are going to go on sale. Most will be to pay for higher living expenses, but much will be to buy bitcoin.
One of the big assets that people will sell is houses. Especially landlords who see the writing on the wall, that rent control is coming. Causing the housing market to crash even more.
Basically, if you want a house, this year will be good for you. However, you must realize that you are not buying an asset, you are buying a liability, but one that is important to keep the rain off of you. So, do not put yourself in an overleveraged position just to get a house. Do not wipe out your crypto bags for something that will cost even less next year.
What do you do when the fundamentals of a market just change?
All we have known is growth. More babies mean more houses.
What happens when we shift to a shrinking population?
Basically our economic theories die, and bank collapse inward upon themselves. They are both based on continuous growth models, and cannot withstand deflation or shrinkage.
Everyone in the blockchain world was sure that property would be tokenized and ownership recorded on the blockchain, but it may never happen. Depending on how fast the housing market drops, and how soon we end up with empty houses everywhere, vs the push to tokenize these properties. And, add on top of that the 15 minute open-air-prisons… The timing of when property will move to the blockchain will probably be pushed off to never.
It is a whole new world. Our previous assumptions are falling apart. Let us plan for what is actually happening, instead of relying on old data and models.