Watching the housing market, i am starting to see the price reductions i expected to see when the interest rates were raised. I calculated that house prices would need to drop in half for people to continue affording house payments. And now, on some of the high end houses, we are seeing six figure price reductions. But, it is not enough. Mortgage application rates have dropped off a cliff.
So, am i saying that we should wait for the housing market to drop to reasonable prices, and then buy rental units? Well, Black Rock seems to be following that plan, however i strongly suggest you sell all urban and suburban real estate, and move out to a homestead. Anything near a large city, especially if that city has gone Woke, will be given away to any who will dare to move in. The house prices are not going to drop, like this is a repeat of 2008, no, the real estate market is going to cease to exist.
One big caveat. I don't know how fast this is going to happen, however, there is a couple indicators saying that it is starting. And the rest is demographics. You can't have negative growth rates and high home prices.
The changing scene in cities
People moved to cities because that is where the jobs were. So, what happens when the jobs are no longer there?
Cities were also centers of commerce; what happens when everything is sold online?
Cities were the hubs were people of status gathered, now they are the hubs of low-lifes and criminals.
The businesses that were all that was keeping these cities alive are going away. Some are employing people online, the rest are just dying. McDs is trying to completely automate their restaurants. But, as soon as they do that, they will find out that there is no one to buy their food. Not only is it poisonous, but if you do not pay people, you do not have any customers.
All those big, empty, commercial buildings are going to be turned into apartments in a desperate attempt to not lose millions of dollars. But, in a place where people are already leaving, adding more rentals will just drive down the real estate market faster.
Cities have a growing homeless populations. Rising crime rates. Services are dwindling. Tax bases are shrinking. Few will want to live in them in the future.
When the stores and jobs are gone, and the night life is dangerous, then the suburbs die too. Why would you live in a tiny house with a tiny yard, with a huge price tag, if it wasn't for the job and the amenities?
You might think i am being too harsh on cities. They have been with us for a long time, so its hard to imagine they will just be gone soon. But they will. What i stated will cause the cities to become barren, but even more reasons to leave the city enters the picture. Better modes of transportation mean that staying stuck to stupid stroads is something you do not have to do. Building a homestead anywhere is doable thanks to locally produced electricity, water and galactic-net.
Demographic collapse
25% of homes in America are owned by boomers. That is 25% of homes that are going to be on the market in the next decade. And there isn't anyone to buy them, especially at today's high house prices.
Then what happens when even more people kick the bucket in the next decade? From the VAXXX causing people to "die suddenly", to whatever the new virus unleashed will be, to bad foods and obesity catching up with people. A lot more people are about to croak.
On top of that we will see a lot of (not very) civil wars and starvation. We have this to look forward to through this decade.
There will be a lot of empty houses. Many with a dessicated corpse inside.
At that point, there is no housing market. The urban Real Estate market will not collapse, it will be gone.
Bye bye banking
Along with all of this excess inventory, banks will be having problems. We will be hearing of a bank a week closing (and then more)
Getting a mortgage will become harder and harder. Both from the banking side and the economic side. Banks are going to be hard hit with all the "foreclosures". What do you do when a non-insignificant amount of your borrowers just stop paying their mortgages. People who check out their mortal coil, and just stop paying their mortgage.
There will also be people who choose to buy food instead of pay the mortgage. Further, there will be people who just abandon their house, and move next door, where the house is free.
During this, the economy is not doing too well. Stores are closing, people are getting laid off. There will be few who will qualify for the ever stricter home loans.
Home sales, what there are of them, will devolve to cash, precious metals and/or cryptos.
Homestead! It is where it is at, baby.
You will eat ze bugz! If you live in any of the cities, because you are starving and that is all the food you have.
If you want healthy, unprocessed, natural, un-poisoned food, you will need to grow it yourself or KNOW the grower. Many people will be leaving the cities for just this reason.
Also, during this time, going off grid become much, much easier. Small, non-polluting, power generation systems will become normal, then ubiquitous. Galactic-net will be everywhere on earth, so you won't have to miss your friends on X or F-c-book.
And, the biggest thing we will see is people saying their depression left, chronic illnesses dropped away, all kinds of pains and mental problems just went away, when the people got out of the cities.
Real Estate isn't crashing like it did in 2008. It will not bounce back. The house of cards is falling over. The banksters are finished. The entire idea of the "kings estate" is over.
City real estate will be given back to nature. People will find that there are much better ways to live. The questions concerning housing everyone will be answered. And the solutions will be quite apparent as we get rid of mortgages and change how we see land ownership.
The future looks brighter for humans, for humanity.
However, those people who are living off rental properties are going to have their income streams destroyed. Hey, it was a good gig when the banks were giving away free money to those would buy up houses and commercial buildings. But it is over now. Even the idea of renting will be gone. (Well, maybe there will be something like renting, but you will basically be paying someone to maintain the place your living in, but in most places it will be exchanging time/labor)
So, watch for these things i have outlined to come true.
It will probably happen at the speed of a slow motion train wreck, and while in it, may just seem like the natural next step, as we create a better way for humans to live.