Prices are weird. The more something goes up in price the more people value it. Instead of buying every satoshi that they can get, at $70,000, most people will wait until it goes over a million, and then FOMO in.
There are bitcoin podcasts that beg their followers to buy bitcoin. Still, most people will not really feel bitcoin is that important, and then, at some point, the price hits a specific mark, and blam, everyone wants it.
I have watched this cycle come and go with bitcoin. (And stocks, and…)
This time its different!
Yeah, right. Well, maybe. You know, well, it could happen…
I hope that we will see the adoption of bitcoin as a medium of exchange.
The way we would hope it goes:
We see on craigs list, selling pricey old vehicle, $150k, prefer bitcoin.
People are selling everything, and what the sellers want is bitcoin. And then people start trading in bitcoin for more and more. And at some point the dollar is just ignored, and the age of bitcoin is upon us
The way it will probably go:
With more capital regulations, large corporations find it easiest to pay cross boarder settlements with bitcoin. They can send a million dollars, with just one bitcoin.
And, if they stay in the bitcoin ecosystem, they don't have to pay the taxes, or the legal, to get around the capital flow restrictions.
(as things get worse in the economy, govern-cements start tightening down on capital flows. Trying the keep the wealthy from moving money out of the country.)
Bitcoin to the moon… again
The more people want it, the more people that want it.
However, what goes up, must go down? Well, that is, unless what it is being measured against goes down faster.
Everyone knows the dollar is collapsing, so why isn't everyone trading their dollars for crypto? Because it is volatile? Because not enough people are using it? Because it is now at $70k, down from $100k? (still up from $1000 and $10k)
Humanity seems adverse from jumping into the pool first.
But, when people are jumping in, everyone decides to jump in.
So, when bitcoin hits a million dollars everyone is going to jump in.
Will people stay in bitcoin this time?
If things stay the same as last time, people will jump in as bitcoin goes to a million dollars, and then get out as it crashes.
However, things are changing!
- Capital flow regulations have started to be implemented.
- People are really starting to feel the inflation
- People are changing to a depression/recession stance
- Other countries are dumping the dollar, Americans will feel that too.
- More people are looking for the exit.
Sooo, as bitcoin starts going towards $1,000,000, more and more people are going to FOMO in. However, a lot more people are going to stay in. (this might be because the on/off ramps are shut down. Ha ha ha, now you are stuck in bitcoin! Wait! What do you mean that is where you were going to stay anyways??!)
The biggest thing that will get people into bitcoin is the ETFs. Imagine bitcoin went up $11,000 in a day, but the ETF caps movement to $10,000 before the circuit breakers kick in. Sooo, people in the ETF, lost $1k of gains. And then when bitcoin goes back down, the people in the ETF will lose more.
People will be thinking/learning, why aren't we directly in bitcoin?
And this will make bitcoin go up even more (because the ETFs are not going to sell their bitcoin. The ETFs are a scheme to get the retail investor to pay for bitcoin for them)
The biggest thing about bitcoin hitting $1,000,000 is that a lot more people will be trying to get in.
With all the hype, everybody will be putting a "We accept bitcoin" on their websites. And when enough people see that they can buy things directly with bitcoin, then the idea of getting out of bitcoin diminishes.
This will probably be the level where bitcoin starts becoming a money.
And then you add in the things that are happening to the financial system, like if we see bank closures, along with food inflation, and govern-cements block the crypto off-ramps, then, unlike the previous times, people might not be getting out of bitcoin just because of the price dropping.
This doesn't have to happen at 1 million, but humans seem to like those big round numbers.
(And all those other things are already happening. The dominoes are falling)