Everyone loves a good Bitcoin price prediction and with the halving or halvening depending on how you want to call it only weeks away everyone who is anyone In the space is busting out the charts and putting their necks our there ready to be wrong.
The truth is none of us know where the price is going to go, the level of uncertainty around this next halfing and bull run is second to none, never have we been living in such a crazy world with such loose monetary policy and printing going gangbusters.
In addition to that, the inflation rate will be lower than that of gold and game theory on exponential growth kicks in big time. Couple that with the growth in network effects over the last 4 years and you have a recipe for some crazy movement......in theory.
Image source: - ointelegraph.co
What is a stock to flow
This is the analysis of the relationship between quantities that are stocks/coins in this case and those that flow of capital coming in to pick up the new allocations. These differ in their units of measurement. A stock is measured at one specific time and represents a quantity existing at that point in time, which may have accumulated in the past.
The plan B Prediction
In a blog post by Plan B they review the Stock-to-flow of Bitcoin. Taking a value based on the supply of new Bitcoins entering circulation through mining versus the existing supply, or “stock.” and looking at how current buy-in will be affected over the next 4 years.
Under S2FX and an S2F value of 56, Bitcoin’s market value should balloon to $5.5 trillion, corresponding to a price per coin of $288,000.
I think this would safely mean becoming a 1 coiner after this is safely out of the majority of peoples hands and we'll never get a chance to own a whole BTC in your lifetime if BTC follows this prediction.
As a half coiner myself this is highly distressing news and I will really need to get my act together if I'm going to hold a whole BTC as my own.
Even if this run means BTC gobbles up most of the value and becomes 70-80% of market value, it would still have a massive knock-on effect on altcoins where volatility will make BTC pump and dumps look like childs play.
This could be where some of us could earn the sats we need to become a whole coiner as alts shoot up to overvalued prices as we saw in the previous run.
Personally I think this is a bit of a stretch and I'd go with less than half that around 80 - 100k as my valuation by 2024 which is closer to the calculations of the previous S2F charts that were released.
Sources:
Have your say
What do you good people of HIVE think? Are you brave enough to put out a 2024 price prediction?
So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, comment "I am a Jessie."
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