Well, it's a pretty sharp market and quite the challenge to pick bets that have massive value. It's somewhat of a confidence thing, purely financially, I'm able to bet bigger all the time but it makes no sense to do so when feeling that the edge is very limited. In the past also when I saw lines that I felt were way off, I more than often was proven wrong. So when I'm in a good streak and feel I'm on top of the market (which was the case last month) I tend to give a shot at getting bigger stakes kick started. However variance remains a big factor so even if I was right, having higher stakes still can end in disaster.

In terms of how I decide, it's more an experience thing I guess. I've been betting the league for a couple decades and watch all games, so based on thta combined with understanding the market I make calls of what to bet and what to skip. It used to be a lot easier in the past but it's still beatable, and most of all it remains something I enjoy a lot.