When analyzing the BTC and ETH charts, we see a divergence in recent price movements.
BTC Price Chart (1hr)
ETH Price Chart (1hr)
My personal viewpoint is that BTC gravity to the downside may outweight the nice cup-and-handle formation ETH is attempting to make.
Ethereum's attempted cup-and-handle:
It is important to note the BTC chart is looking weak on a day timeframe chart. Meaning, just looking at BTC, you would think that continued downward moves over the next 1+ weeks is more likely than a continued rapid rally to the upside.
Yet, the Ethereum chart and attitude seems to directly contradict what the BTC chart outlines.
Which chart is correct, ETH or BTC? Here are some possibilities:
The ETH chart may reveal that BTC is actually not in decline, even though the chart looks shakey. Meaning, BTC may resume a rally where ETH outpaces BTC gains in the later stages of a BTC rally.
BTC chart reveals that ETH's apparent strength is an illusion on a short-term basis. In which case, we may still believe the cup-and-handle is real. Just that the handle is perhaps a bit bigger and more drawn out over two weeks or more before ETH is willing to break into new all-time highs.
An actual divergence occurs. BTC is not that weak, but then also, ETH rallies fulfilling the cup-and-handle formation, rallying to new highs.
I believe #1 and #2 are likely. #3 is very unlikely but possible.
Whatever downside BTC may have, I personally believe the downside limit is somewhere between 28k and 24k. Exceptionally unlikely BTC would retest 20k, but if it really crashed/declined, a level somewhere above 22k is most likely. Even some kind of side-ways stair-step formation is possible.
BTC Has some Decisions to Make on Pricing
I think all these line formations are within a realm of possible outcomes. A fast resumption of the rally could easily end up at 50k to 100k, as the parabolic move finishes.
A slowing of the rally is perhaps a healthier movement providing more consistent gains that hold and form a longer term rally.
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