Bitcoin and Ethereum both saw a significant increase in price, indicating that the bulls might be around the corner.
One of the side effects of this will be a lot of crypto speculation and experts giving price predictions.
Time for us to make a visit to the oracle.
Before going forward let me make it clear, although I think this should already be obvious.
I don’t know what will be the future price of Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Nobody does.
Here we will be looking at a pure statistical point of view, using standard data tool, giving average and ranges. The point of this post is to try to give some rough perspective.
Bitcoin Price
First let’s see the historical data for the Bitcoin price. From 2013 to 2020. The more historical data the better. In this case this was the largest set of data I could obtain available on coinmarketcap.
Bitcoin was trading bellow 1000$ for a long time. In 2017 it broke this mark, and in that same year it reached its all time high of 20k. Soon after a correction followed reaching the 3200 low in December 2018. In the last year we saw a mini bull run for BTC reaching 14k, then back to 7k. In 2020 we saw the dip in March when BTC dropped under 5k, then up again to 9k to 10k when is trading now.
What’s next?
For the prediction I won’t be using some fancy TA analysis or something like that just the simple forecast function that excel provides. A pure statistical analysis. Here it is.
The forecast in terms of range and a statistical average.
We can notice the wide range here. This is because of the volatile history the BTC price has. In statistical terms the price can land anywhere in the forecasted range. This is telling us how unpredictable the BTC price is.
On the low end, according to statistics, BTC can go to 2k at the end of the year, five months from now.
On the high end BTC can reach 18k by the end of the 2020.
Everyone hoping for an all time high in 2020? According to statistics this is an extreme. There is a probability for it to happen but very low. Now statistics isn’t always right, and all of these should be taken with reserve.
If we look at the average, that is supposed to be the most likely scenario BTC will finish 2020 around the 11k mark. Still an uptrend on the average 😊.
ETH Price
Ok, now let’s take a look at the second best Ethereum.
Ethereum has been showing a real strength in the las week, going from 230$ to 300$ in a matter of days.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has been around for 5 years. The historical data for it is not as big as Bitcoin but still five years data is good enough.
Here is the all time price chart for ETH.
It is heavily correlated with the BTC chart. A peak in December 2017, even bigger drop afterwards. At one point ETH dropped bellow 100$. We can see some growth in 2019 reaching more than 300$ and a slight drop afterwards to bellow 200$. In the last period it has the price has been going up and reached 300# again.
What’s next for ETH?
Here is the forecast chart.
The forecasted range for ETH price is even more volatile than for BTC.
In theory, according to statistics there is possibility for the ETH price to go to zero by the end of 2020. This will most likely not happen, but it is showing us how volatile crypto is.
On the high end ETH can reach 600$ by the end of the year. Some would say this is a conservative scenario 😊.
The average price for ETH for the end of 2020 is 328$.
Note again that this is pure statistics and ETH can trade out of this range easily.
My Personal Opinion
For Bicton I think that we are moving into more classical trading zone and prices.
Before 2017 bull market, the only people trading BTC were the tech savvy and the crypto enthusiast, that are mostly optimistic on BTC. Now, as we have seen in official report there is more traditional traders in the market, the ones that are shorting BTC as well.
The market is not driven by optimist only, but with more traditional traders as well. Saying this it means that we should have more stable prices so to speak, and no crazy bull or bear runs. This still doesn’t mean that BTC will be stable, it will oscillate a lot but not like from 1k to 20k in 2017, but still can double its price easily and also half its price as well. But no x20 moves in one year. Maybe x3 moves in a year.
There are around 50M BTC wallets at the moment. If we compare this to the world population, or just with the number of internet users, that is more than 3 billions at the moment, we can easily see the potential. But thing don’t happen fast and in one year. For Bitcoin to reach 1 billion wallets it will take time.
Ethereum comes the closest to Bitcoin and is the only coin at the moment that can rival it and maybe flip it at some point.
In the past the ETH price was hardly drive by some sort of products that can be build upon it. The ICO of 2017 and most recently DeFi. Since Ethereum is a platform like blockchain it price will be dependent on things that can be build on top of it. One of the setbacks for ETH is its high fees. ETH 2 is set for the end of the year and that should make things better. Still even with ETH 2, I don’t think ETH would be a blockchain for apps with large number of transactions like games or gambling apps. DeFi and other types of apps yes.
At the end once again:
Not an investment advice!
What are your thoughts? What will be the price of BTC and ETH at the end of 2020.
