Unbelievable. Four thousand dollars an ounce! It actually passed that mark two days ago, on the 7th, but I only just noticed. (er… maybe? Time zones are tricky. My graph shows the 7th anyway.) Still… wow.
To think that one hundred years ago, you could walk into a bank and buy a Double Eagle for $20. Each one contained roughly a troy ounce of gold. So: $20 for an ounce of gold back then, and $4,000 today. That’s a two-hundred-fold increase.
Putting $20 from 1913 into an inflation calculator gives about $654.50 in 2025 dollars — an increase of roughly 3,172%. Big, yes, but nowhere near the 19,900% jump in gold’s nominal value.
The dollar has declined sharply over the century (around 3,000%, as you see above) but gold hasn’t just preserved its value; it’s multiplied it. Gold hasn’t merely been a store of value. It’s been an engine of value.
So what gives?
Some of that rise reflects inflation and currency debasement, sure. But much of it reflects trust — or rather, the lack of it. When investors lose faith in central banks, governments, or the long-term value of paper money, they run to gold.
That’s what we’re seeing now. Trillions in global debt, de-dollarization trends, and persistent inflation despite “soft landings” and rosy forecasts. Every promise the system makes seems to come with an asterisk.
Gold doesn’t yield dividends or compound interest. It just sits there. But what it does is endure; quietly marking time while currencies rise and fall around it.
It’s not that gold got more valuable. It’s that our money got worse. Worse than inflation shows us. Much worse.
If history is any guide, the $4,000 mark may not hold forever. Markets overshoot. But it’s hard not to see this as symbolic: a flashing neon sign reminding us that faith in fiat is fading.
Maybe the lesson isn’t to buy gold. Maybe it’s just to understand why others are. At this point, it’s hard to recommend buying. Gold might keep climbing — but it might just as easily fall. Even the average person on the street is starting to sense that the stock market’s in a bubble. That awareness alone could keep pushing cautious investors toward gold. But how long can that continue…?
What do you think? Do we get to $5k soon?