Image by Rocco Stoppoloni from Pixabay
I came onto Hive's predecessor, and thus into crypto, in March 2019, and did not really start looking at other coins until about July 2020 ... but then I got started with Bitcoin and slowly branched out to other projects ... I learned, but I was frustrated because I knew: "If only I had known enough in 2019!" It turned out that being on Hive in 2020, though, saved the day ... and is still saving the day ... yet I told myself, once I understood the four-year cycle, that I would stay faithful on Hive no matter what, not sell out my little Bitcoin stack and not all of my other little stacks, and would start finding new coins in 2023, not 2024. I know better now, and can do better!
Crypto Capital Venture has been one of my go-to YouTube channels for a long time ... level-headed analysis of Bitcoin and Cardano in particular in the markets, but in general, Bitcoin, for as Bitcoin goes, so goes the market in terms of the cycle.
On Saturday afternoon (July 29), Crypto Capital Venture came through with this video.
What he had done was compare the cycles back to to 2013 see the relationship between the bull market and the halvings of Bitcoin -- but what struck me was that even if you know nothing about charting, you could notice the wave shape of the previous cycles and notice where we are ... still in the trough of the last cycle, in a trough about half as long as the one after the previous cycle. That made sense to me ... 2018 was downward and 2019 bottomed and then went sideways, but things began to turn around in 2020 with the real action in 2021 ... so, 2022 was a downward year and 2023 appears to have come from the bottom and is now going slightly upward but largely sideways ... still enough time to the halving for that to go well into 2024. Last time out in 2020, things really began to pick up in September ... and that is largely what Crypto Capital Venture predicts for 2024.
Sunday afternoon (July 30), No BS Crypto showed up in my algorithm for the first time with his charting predictions -- an eerie correlation of 548 days from the halving to the end of the bull cycle has held for two cycles, which allows him to suggest that the bull market will run from April 2024 to late October/very early November of 2025.
This also made sense to me because I remembered where Hive topped out in the last cycle: November 2021. The halving is in April instead of May this next year, and so the end coming a month or so early also makes sense.
And then it hit me: "I have been handed the bookends to the whole run, if these gentlemen's charting is correct."
So then I went over to look at the charts for myself today (August 1) ... their measurements appear to be sound, week by week ... of course, the things going on in the world are different, and so there may not be an EXACT match, but Bitcoin is consistent in its behavior thus far.
Today, this video from No BS Crypto came into my feed, and I had to look at it twice to make sure I understood the message ... there are about 26,000 altcoins, and supposedly 24,437 of them are going to disappear...
My first thought: "OK, he is probably right about the charting, but this one?"
My second thought: "Suppose he is right? Where is Hive in this?"
The long and the short of the above video, though, may well be that by 2030, there are going to be two deciding factors given the way regulations are shaking up in he U.S., Canada, and Australia:
Coins and projects that have UTILITY and TRUSTED GOVERNANCE in the environmental, social, and enterprise aspects that will be coming to the fore in the next decade are likely to survive.
Coins and projects will be sorted by regulation into either the SECURITIES box or the COMMODITIES box, and (presuming that we do not take into account that coins like Hive may miss sorting because small decentralized projects just might) the vast majority of coins in the SECURITIES box likely will have to close their doors because they will not be able to conform to regulations.
We have already seen our own Blocktrades first stop trades for U.S. citizens and then stop the exchange, period, because the SEC is basically trying to shut down everything but Bitcoin and is threatening and impeding the large centralized exchanges and projects quite a bit -- perhaps the SEC will have to back up, but the point is that it is easy to see how at least in the U.S., a number of projects could be forced out of business or at least away from the hands of U.S. citizens and their potential to invest, and if the European, British Commonwealth, and U.S. governments get in step, that will damage a great number of projects.
However, it so happens that Hive hits the social and enterprise aspects that denote coins that will likely survive, and its decentralized nature, small size, and increasing world adoption means it may not be dependent on the U.S. and other European-descent dominated countries to survive. Ironically, Hive may also shine with 24,431 competitors -- most of whom are nowhere near as good -- removed, so people can find the unique features and story and utility Hive has.
There is a LOT of information in these three videos ... I wanted to pass these things on so Hivers can know what might be up ahead and make informed moves!