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So 30,000 tech jobs gone in six weeks. Six weeks!! We're not even done with February and the layoff tracker is already looking like 2025 was just the warm up round.
Everyone keeps saying "AI will create more jobs than it destroys" and I keep asking.. where. Because right now what I'm seeing is companies figuring out they can run the same operations with half the people, and the other half gets a nice email about "restructuring" and "strategic realignment" or whatever HR calls it these days.
the outsourcing angle nobody is talking about
Here's what really got me thinking. South Africa's tech sector is getting hammered because a lot of those jobs were outsourced support, QA, data labeling, that kind of thing. The exact type of work that AI is now eating for breakfast.
I know this becuse I've been on that side. Not South Africa specifically but the whole outsourcing pipeline in Africa. My last gig before the contract ended was essentially managing infrastructure for a company that did BPO work for European clients. We had like 40 people doing data entry and basic tech support.. and management was already talking about "AI integration" before I left. Which is corporate speak for "we're going to replace most of you with a chatbot."
the thing is, for years the pitch to foreign companies was "hire African workers, they're cheaper than domestic staff." And it worked!! Call centers in Lagos and Nairobi, dev shops in Cape Town, data annotation teams everywhere. Good jobs too, by local standards. My cousin was making decent money at one of those places in Lagos.
But now the same companies are realizing that AI is even cheaper than cheap labor. And faster. ANd it doesnt need NEPA to stay on ;-)
Oracle is the one that scared me
Oracle apparently looking at cutting 20,000 to 30,000 jobs because banks are pulling back from financing their AI data center expansion. So let me get this straight.. they're cutting jobs AND their AI plans are stalling? That's the worst combo. You dont get the efficiency gains from AI but you still lose the jobs because the expectation of AI already changed how executives think about headcount.
That's the part that spooks me. Its not even about whether AI actually works or delivers what the sales pitch promises. The moment a CEO reads a McKinsey report about "AI-driven productivity gains" they start looking at their payroll differently. The layoffs happen based on the promise of AI, not the reality of it.
I've seen this before with cloud computing btw. Around 2015-2016 every company was "moving to the cloud" and firing their on-prem sysadmins. Then five years later they realized the cloud bill was insane and started hiring people to manage multi-cloud setups and optimize costs. But those five years in between? A lot of good admins were out of work for nothing.
what this means for people like me
Look I'm not gonna pretend I'm some neutral observer here. I'm an unemployed sysadmin in Nigeria watching this happen in real time. The companies that might have outsourced some infrastructure management work to someone like me are now asking themselves if they even need a person for that role at all.
And before someone says "just learn AI" — yeah I know. everyone says that. But learning AI tools doesnt help when the entire category of job disappears. It's like telling a horse stable worker in 1920 to "just learn about engines." Sure, some of them became mechanics. Most of them just became unemployed.
the IFC estimates that 230 million digital jobs will open up in Africa by 2030.. but those projections always assume governments will invest in training infrastructure and internet access and stable power. Have you met African governments?? I love Nigeria but lets be honest, NEPA cant even keep the lights on consistently and we're supposed to be training the next generation of AI engineers?
I'm not being pessimistic, I'm being realistic. The jobs that are disappearing right now are real and concrete. The jobs that are suposed to replace them are theoretical and depend on everything going right. History tells us everything does not go right, especially not in emerging markets.
so what do you actually do
idk honestly. I'm figuring it out myself. What I do know is that the people who survive these transitions are the ones who can do things AI cant easily replicate.. which right now means anything involving physical infrastructure, human judgment in ambiguous situations, and honestly just being present in a room when something breaks at 3am.
Which is basically my entire job description as a sysadmin, so maybe there's hope for me yet LOL
But for the 30,000 people who got that email this month? I dont know man. That's a lot of mortgages and rent payments and families depending on salaries that just vanished. And we're only in February.
anyone else watching this and thinking we're in for a rough year?
