Chart: metatrader4
Hello friends and Hive community👨⚕️🤚
I am Dr. Research👨⚕️🤚, a friend who intends to use my experiences and knowledge to produce and share useful and valuable content for you, as well as use your content and learn more.
📝: Executive Summary: Bitcoin is completing a corrective pattern and preparing for the next upward move. Short-term target: 120,000-122,000
Key support: 110,000. Upside probability: 65%👀
1.Technical Analysis - Pure Price Action✅
Daily Timeframe (D1):✅
Chart: metatrader4
Overall Market Structure:
Main Trend: Correction in a larger bullish structure (February low around 78,000 ← August high around 126,000)
Current Position: 113,586 - Right on Key Resistance
Forming Pattern: Descending Triangle with a Potential Upward Break
Key Levels:
🔴Strong Resistance: 126,300 (Historical High)
🟠Intermediate Resistance: 120,000-122,000 (Previous Trading Congestion Area)
🟣Current Resistance: 113,586 (Neckline of the Pattern)
🔵First Support: 110,000 (Psychological Support of the Structure)
🔵Strong Support: 105,000 (Recent October Low)
4-Hour Timeframe (H4):✅
Chart: metatrader4
Key Observations:
Double Bottom pattern formed around 105,000
Break of the Downtrend Line from the High 126,000 occurred
Volume: Significant increase in recent bullish candles
Bullish strengths:
Successful test of 105,000 support (three times)
Price retraces above key moving averages
Higher Low structure forming
2.Fundamental Analysis - Events of the Week✅
Impact of Central Bank Decisions:
October 29 - FOMC (most critical):
Expectation: Rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00%
Impact on BTC: Strong bullish (weak dollar = strong Bitcoin)
Volatility probability: Very high
October 29 - Bank of Canada:
Expected rate cut: Moderate bullish impact
October 30 - BOJ and ECB:
Expected rate stability: Neutral to mildly positive impact
3.Trading Scenarios✅
Main Scenario (65% probability):👀
Long Entry (Buy):
First Entry Point: 113800-114200 (Break and consolidate above resistance)
Second Entry Point: 110,500-111,000 (Pullback to support)
Stop Loss: 109,500 (Below key support)
First Target: 118,000 (R:R = 1:2)
Second Target: 122,000 (R:R = 1:3.5)
Final Target: 126,300 (R:R = 1:5)
Alternative Scenario (35% probability):👀
Short Entry (Conservative):
Condition: No break of 114,000 by October 28
Entry Point: 113,200-113,500
Stop Loss: 114,800
Target: 110,000 then 105,000
4.Risk and Capital Management✅
Recommended Capital Allocation:
Initial Position: 1% of Total Capital
If Trend Confirmed: Increase to 2%
Maximum Risk Per Trade: 1-1.5%
Key Decision Points:✅
Before FOMC (October 29): Reduce Position Size by 50%
After Consolidation Above 116,000: Increase Position
Any Close Below 109,000: Full Exit
5.Downside Risks and Scenarios✅
Main Risks:
No FOMC Rate Cut → Possible Fall to 105,000
Stronger-than-expected US GDP Data → Selling Pressure
Weekend Liquidity Risk → High Volatility
Signs of Bullish Scenario Refutation:
Daily Close Below 110,000
No Positive Reaction to Rate Cut News
Heavy Selling Volume at 114,000
6.Final Advice✅
Suggested Strategy:
1.Wait for the 114,000 break for the main entry
2.50% position on the break, 50% on the pullback
3.Active management around news events
👨⚕️🤚
🧠That's my analysis for this week!what do you think?do you agree with this outlook?
Do you have any questions that I can help you with?👀
Would you like me to analyze xauusd, nas100, Ethereum, etc.?👀
👨⚕️🤚
Your friend Dr Research
✅Disclaimer :✅
🆘This content is for informational and educational purposes and should not be used as a basis for decision making.
⛔️ The content you have seen is my personal opinion and thinking and should in no way affect your opinion or type of trading. You must think for yourself and reach a conclusion.
📝 Content: Written in Persian → Google Translate → Edited by me (English)