Following is an interesting chart about Bitcoin's average daily price change for the last 10 years:
2010: +0.82%
The interesting fact about the chart is that similarity between 2012 and 2016, 2013 and 2017, 2014 and 2018, 2015 and 2019. Both in 2013 and 2017, BTC saw tremendous growth which is 1.11% and 0.78% per day growth.
In February, 2013 when I first learned about BTC, it was around $32 at the end of December it was $1100, 35X growth and later, 2014 it sink to as low as $150. Similar pattern repeated in 2017, 1st January BTC was $1000, it grew 20X by January 2018 and then touched $3120 in December, 2018.
Both 2014 and 2018, is the year for bear. BTC dropped at rate of 0.25% in 2014 and of 0.33% in 2018. For example, BTC was $750 on January 1st, then it dropped to $320 on December, 31st 2014.
Similarly, BTC was $14000 on January 1st, then it dropped to $3700 on December, 31st 2018.
The both 2015 and 2019 is a moderate bullish year. BTC was $3700 on January 1st, then it moved up to $7300 on December, 31st 2019.
The years of BTC halving, 2012 and 2016, BTC grew by 0.26% and 0.22% respectively.
It looks like BTC is repeating similar cycle of bull and bear around reward halving. If it repeats similar pattern for 2020 and we assume that BTC will grow 0.24% (average of 2012 and 0216) each day, then we will see $17500 BTC by the end of 2020.
However, the most bullish year is the year after BTC halving. BTC grew at astonishing rate of 1.11% and 0.78% per day in 2013 and 2017 respectively.
If it repeats similar pattern for 2021 and we assume that BTC will grow 0.95% (average of 2013 and 0217) each day, then we will see $550K BTC by the end of 2021.
It means that we at a bullish year. Then the next good news is that we can see tremendous growth for 2021. The second quarter is crucial, since BTC's reward will be halved.
What about Steem? Steem's all time low was in April, 2017 at 8 cents. The last December (2019) we came close to 10.2 cents. If BTC keeps growing and recent altcoin positivism keeps going, Steem may reach $1 in 2020 and if it performs better on success of SMTs then we may also see $2 Steem too.
After that the year 2021 could be year of mega altcoin bull run.
Therefore, my 2020's year high price for Steem is $1 to $2 during Christmas in 2020. If one of BTC's ETF is approved and SMTs see some amount of success then we might see as high as $2 for Steem in between August to December.
Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions. This opinion is only for educational purpose.
Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.
Thanks for reading.
Cryptominer , occasional trader and tech blogger since 2013
Posted via Steemleo