Haven't posted in a couple days so I just figured I'd give a quick update on the market and where I see things going. Hard to pay attention to much else with Bitcoin finally teasing that $100k price point. Laser eyes till... fiat dies.
I'm old enough to remember when it was laser eyes to $100k
This unit bias level is going to be the ultimate psychological shift as we head into 2025. Glorious six figures. Next milestone after that is clearly $1M but we might have to wait 5 years before that happens. Then again it's also possible we get there early as 2025 is shaping up to be multiples stronger than 2021 on a foundational level.
The breakout forced me to draw a new line for the first time in 5 months.
It looks like we may be flagging here and potentially on our way to tap six-figures. We're significantly less than a 20% pump away at this point. The market hangs in disbelief. Could it really be coming so soon? After such a brutal crab? Yes, this is how it always happens... and it often happens starting in October/November.
Notice how yesterday the final golden cross got locked in (100/200) and we immediately victory pumped to $93k. Of course this cross is often a lagging indicator so is more of a macro trend of what's to come over the next month or two... which is why it crashed immediately on the speculators getting wrecked x50 longing the top like idiots.
Degenerates continue throwing money away.
Imagine number going up in your favor constantly while also getting liquidated over and over again. I seriously have to wonder what type of mental illness this is, but I already know this chart portrays serious gambling addiction. Hard to know whether to laugh or feel bad honestly. This market has been free money for anyone paying attention but the charts show that bulls are still really stupid.
As far as my chart is concerned the next huge resistance level is the purple line that towers at $110k. Honestly I'm shocked this trendline from earlier in the year is still even valid it's been sloped up so hard. Above that sits my doubling curve around $140k.
Doubling curve is still very much in play.
After 3AC/UST/FTX triple threat systemic collapse we've been floundering underwater for 3 whole years. While everyone is looking to the Power Law model as a good indicator... it isn't. Anything that tries to put time on a log curve when it comes to technology is absolutely doomed. Tech is ALWAYS exponential.
My doubling curve however is looking pretty damn good. All we have to do is get above that line this cycle and it will prove that it hasn't been forsaken. In fact the most bullish case scenario is that we crash down to that line from a much higher price point. Meaning $400k could end up being the bottom of the next bear market. Obviously that's an insane take at the current price point so I'll keep it in the back pocket for if/when it becomes more digestible.
This is what many people don't get:
2021 SUCKED. It was really bad. 2025 needs to make up for everything we lost in 2021 and then add some extra juice on top of that. This is a mainstream adoption once-in-a-lifetime face-melting run and most people are getting ready to sell an x2 or x3 gain.
2021 has made people delusional.
Many are thinking 2025 will play out in exactly the same way. Which means the expectation is that we'll be in this rally for months and peak near the all time high early like we did last time. However, the actual all time high has ALWAYS been in November. Go check. 2013. 2017. Even 2021. All November. For some reason we find a reason for this time to be different. Why? Well actually I'm happy that it works out this way because that's exactly why it never is different.
Bearish short-term base case.
I mean at this point even the bearish case is bullish. We could start trading inside of that new ascending channel but the bottom of it is already well above $72k at this point. $72k has become a key support level after 8 months of grueling crab. A victory well deserved.
The bullish case is continuing to flag here but we do have a full moon coming in tomorrow which often signals massive volatility (in both directions). In any case the price is so volatile I'm going to have to stop looking at daily candles and switch back to 1H like I was doing back in March when I perfectly called the top and sold a nice chunk at $72k. It's also nice that my bank account is flush full of cash right now that allows me to not sell any crypto while all this excitement is going on.
BTC.DOMINANCE
Bitcoin dominance is absolutely rampaging right now at the top of the channel near 61%. This is mostly due to ETH underperforming and not really the best indicator of a boring market. Memes and alts are going absolutely crazy in this environment. It's also worth pointing out that the alt-market last cycle didn't actually start until Q2. We may have to wait that long before dominance gets back around to that 40% level. It's around this time that we should start rotating alts back into Bitcoin so we don't lose it all in the bear market like we always do. It may even go as low as 30% this time, which would be pure insanity. But first we need to break the channel by going below the 56%-57% area.
All this being said it's painfully obvious that Bitcoiners are going to be very upset next year when everything is outperforming them again. They think it can't happen because of institutional adoption. I mean they are delusional but we already knew that going in. This time is not different. Bring on the generational wealth.
Up 27% in November so far.
That's a pretty good amount but still not as high as 2021 or 2017. I think we can expect to at least test $100k this month which would be +43% on the month. That big resistance at $110k is +57% and would be an obvious place to go short for the day trade. There will be massive victory selling at $100k+ for a couple of days just like their was at $69420... in fact at $69420 all we got was a 15% liquidation nuke within a single day and we just kept going up. I will not be surprised to see a similar event at $100k.
Any overbought indicators?
Hm let's see...
- Dominance at local highs.
- Volume is not frothy.
- 2025 hasn't even started yet.
- We've solidified a record-breaking 8-month floor.
- 15% nuke brings us to the bottom of a wide ascending channel.
Conclusion
This run hasn't even started yet and is going to knock a lot of even the seasoned veterans on their asses. Many comparisons to 2021 will continue to be made even this this environment is nothing like what we had four years back.
Crypto always makes a big move around my birthday...
but a big move has already been made.
Is there more where that came from?
Yes.