Ah shit here we go again!
So we got our first death-cross and now local supports are falling away. This is not the end of the world but it might take us a while to climb our way out of this hole that we are still actively digging. Today happens to be a full moon, and full moon dumps are quite common before recovery pumps. However Trump's inauguration is also a week from now, and no one should be surprised if it ends up being a sell-the-news event. Everyone can see it coming a mile away.
Luckily for us the last huge sell-the-news event we experienced was the Blackrock ETF launch almost exactly one year ago. However, instead of actually being bearish it ended up being the ultimate 15% buy-the-dip discount and subsequently exploded into all time highs just one month later. Could the same thing happen this year? Definitely maybe!
But even if February and March are bearish disappointments that's going to set the scene for a killer summer rally. Sell in May and Go Away, as they say, but also we've seen quite a few peaks in June. This being said September has always been a killer buy-the-dip month, so be ready for that. In fact if September ends up being an amazing pump into crazy all time highs I'm going to be extremely worried we're getting an obvious top signal.
That being said I don't think this cycle is going to get cut short. I honestly think the opposite a this point: that the peak of this cycle is going to pop in late somewhere in 2026 and trick everyone into thinking "this time is different" like happens every cycle. I don't know how the market vampire swings this every single time, but this is what happens... every single time. "tHIs tImE iS dIFFerenT!" Hm yeah it's not though. Don't be greedy and balance your positions so it doesn't matter as much where price goes... especially if you're already rich beyond dreams or even just hit major financial milestones.
When to go long?
Well my plan is to start going long around $85k. This is very near the 100 day moving average and certainly a good place to start. I view $72k as a quite uncrackable support at this point and if we were to flash crash anywhere near that area I'll be making huge irresponsible bets. However, there is a lot of economic trouble in the greater market:
https://x.com/edict3d/status/1878834642272518652
Lot's of people worried about DXY.
For those who need a reminder the DXY is the RELATIVE strength of the United States Dollar. The DXY going up doesn't necessarily mean the value of the dollar is going up. More often than not it just means that the basket of currencies it's pegged to is going down faster than the world reserve currency.
The US Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the United States Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The basket of currencies consists of the Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British Pound, and Swedish Krona.
Why is having a strong dollar bad?
Should people enjoy having more purchasing power with their money, right? Ah yes well that's all well and good until we realize that we operate under the fractional reserve Ponzi. In a debt-based system imagine what happens when the debt you owe back to the bank increases in value. Maybe you bought a car for $40k. Imagine you look at your loan one day and see it's gone up to $50k. This is the type of thing that can happen on an international level when the dollar has relative strength against say the Euro or the Pound. Owing back more money than one bargained for can totally mess up the entire debt based ecosystem.
https://x.com/stackhodler/status/1878746241443475665
But wait! There's more!
Many are seeing the 10-year bond yields going up and alarm bells are going off. The 10-year is dictated by the free market, so when it does something that we don't expect this normally implies that the free-market is not buying the narrative that central banks are selling.
As a reminder when bond yields go up it means that institutions are dumping their bonds on the market at a discount. The extra yield comes from dumping the asset for less than its perceived current worth. Thus, the free-market thinks we are in for a rough ten years economically if institutions are dumping one of the safest perceived assets at a loss. Makes sense considering inflation is not going down but the FED also can't increase rates because doing so would choke out the banks.
If yields are allowed to rise uncontrollably, bond portfolios plummet in value, the entire banking system is insolvent, and everything comes crashing down.
That will almost certainly not be allowed.
This time will not be different.
What about Hive?
Our token has been bleeding pretty good along with everything else, as expected. However, we're still at rank #320 on the market cap. Considering we started at #500 before the recent pump we are still doing well on the relative scale. I'll be comfortable making some moves on Hive once we get back to the 25 day moving average, currently at 41 cents and rising... although I may just wait for January to be over to see how this sell-the-news event pans out.
Conclusion
The panic is starting to set in as the current downtrend continues, but also we are still only 15% from the tippy top. Will we get another classic 30% retracement before moving back up. Hopefully that's exactly what happens because I'd like to start degen gambling again and I need a decent entry-point to justify it.