After a full 7 days of trading within this wedge, Bitcoin shows signs of breaking out to the upside. No surprise there. This could easily be a false breakout and crash down to $18600 and still be within the bounds of the wedge, but there's also a good chance the market goes crazy from here.
Bitcoin has a way of making huge moves when I'm sleeping at 3 AM (6 AM East Coast) and I feel like I could be in for another surprise when I wake up tomorrow.
$50k Prediction
My $50k Bitcoin prediction in two weeks still stands. I know that sounds kind of ridiculous considering the market hasn't done anything but consolidate for an entire week since I made the prediction... but honestly that's exactly what I was expecting.
We are at all time highs and the price is undergoing major consolidation. The fact that Bitcoin has stayed at all time highs for so long speaks volumes as to where the price is going. The entities buying at this level are obviously strong hands who aren't going to sell for a while.
Again, consolidation for a week was exactly what I was expecting. Tons of people are going short at all time highs. The explosion upward will be massive if the buyers win the supply & demand war. Essentially as soon as we break above $20k everyone who bet against Bitcoin is going to get very afraid that they made a bad bet.
Bitcoin bull runs are explosive and very fast. If we look at previous bursts that lasted 3 weeks, the first week is largely a dud while the second week is pretty good. The third week spikes so high that the market becomes fully unstable and the top blows off the volcano. This is what we are looking for: complete market instability and hysterical FOMO. Even at all time highs... I'm not even seeing a whiff of that at the moment.
So while it looks as though Bitcoin hasn't made any gains in the last week, it actually has. A lot of the money that has traded hands is going to reenter the market when Bitcoin goes above $20k. The buyers are going to hold and the sellers are going to FOMO back in at a loss. If I'm right the price should spend very little time in the $20k-$23k range and shoot right past it fairly quickly. I'm expecting a flag up to something like $25k pretty easily once the $20k barrier is broken. Long pressure and short squeezes are potentially very high right now.
December 8, 2020: The Safe Harbor Deadline
This is the day that all states much officially certify the results of the election. Don't be surprised if the market trades around this date and December 14th (when electors cast their votes). The market loves stability and despises uncertainty. Every time the Kamala administration is confirmed the market trades higher, with the most recent development being the DOW trading at all time highs when Trump allowed the transition team into the Whitehouse on November 24th.
Volume at Amazon hasn't been relatively very high compared to what it usually is during peak season. They hired a ton of new people to accommodate the large volumes during Christmas, but they haven't needed that many workers so far.
In fact, we had more volume when COVID hit, I've been jokingly calling this entire year COVID Christmas because our volumes have been so high. Ironically enough, now that Christmas is here volume isn't that high and they are offering voluntary time off to associates every day of the week during peak season. This is an unprecedented development.
I think a lot of citizens out there are pretty overextended from COVID and drowning in debt. The velocity of money may very well crash into the mountain at the end of the month, further leading me to believe that if we get a Bitcoin run it's going to have to be sooner rather than later. This is especially relevant considering all the lockdown scenarios in play at the moment. No one is going to be spending any money after Christmas if everyone is already burnt out on funds and everything is on lockdown.
It will be interesting to see if we get a Bitcoin Christmas dump this time around...
How many people bought Bitcoin as a gift only for that gift to get dumped onto the market the day of? I guess we'll find out.
Conclusion
Everything is going to plan, but in order for $50k Bitcoin to be even remotely possible we're probably gonna have to break $20k on December 8th and flag up a nice run. If that works out the flag up on December 14th should be even more massive (assuming there aren't a ton of faithless electors voting for Trump when they shouldn't be).
Yeah, it's all speculation, but we've been hovering right under all time highs for so long... nobody gets this much time to sell Bitcoin at a local maximum. Bitcoin peaks are swift and sharp, and the chances that we have been at a peak for weeks is absurd from a statistical point of view. Instead it's much more likely that this is an epic consolidation phase where weak hands are trading into strong hands, and those weak hands are about to FOMO back into the market at a loss. One can hope.