Geo-political theater continues.
Iran just attacked Israel in the weirdest of ways. Gave everyone plenty of notice and declared why they were doing it... and now they are... done I guess? "Stay out of it USA," they declare. Funny thing that... considering we're always looking for an excuse to get involved in the middle east.
Of course we crypto degenerates don't care about petty trifles like infinite war for profit. How much did this little stunt cost my bags? Bitcoin dipped hard and almost tapped $60k, with a very swift recovery up to $64k. Alts weren't nearly as resilient with many of them nose-diving 20%-30% during the bleed.
Of course none of this news actually matters. News doesn't move the price on its own, and usually will just push the price where it wanted to go anyway. Bitcoin was always going to dip to at least $60k, and will probably go lower still. This has been in the cards regardless of any media headline. In fact the last speculation post I wrote 9 days ago was literally titled "SHORT APRIL". I wasn't subtle. This move was obvious. The news is just a catalyst and excuse for market makers to capitalize on fear as they always do. Get the most bang for your buck.
Of course Bitcoiners, thinking they are the saviors of the universe, seem to have a different take. Take the meme above that has Bitcoin absorbing all the volatility while the stock market had less than a 2% dip. The dip had nothing to do with Bitcoin being strong and acting as a meat shield for the rest of the economy, but I guess don't try to tell someone doing this type of mental gymnastics the simple truth: Bitcoin is still overbought and needs to flush out some of this halving delusion.
Yep, the halving is still bearish.
I'm positioning my current bet on a bounce from here, which actually could be a big mistake according to the Rule of Three. We've only gotten two dumps and 2 slight recoveries so far. Another dump to the $58k target is definitely on the table, but I also believe that the war narrative catalyst combined with tax season has created a short period of being oversold for the time being. I'm definitely looking to reboot my short between the $67k-$69k range. I simply do not see how the halving event could possibly be bullish in this environment.
There are thousands of people holding BTC right now thinking the halving event is some magic thing that's going to pump the price instantly by 10x. It's such delusional thinking given the actual history of this event and the fact that it's going to choke every single mining operation on the planet. All miners will be distressed sellers during this phase as they attempt to keep the lights on while the weaker operations go bankrupt. All the people who were delusionally optimistic will sell within days after the halving occurs when they realize number is going down like it always does.
Moon cycles still comically strong.
Huge pump on the full moon.
Massive dump after the solar eclipse new moon.
We still find ourselves in the hyper-bearish pocket of both a new moon and an overhyped halving event. Next full moon April 23rd. Mercury retrograde ends around April 25th. Perfect timeline for delusional Bitcoiners to dump a ton of coins on the market right after the halving event when they realize it's not magic.
Points of support.
$58k is a massive point of support that might even end up being the local bottom of this bear-trap. This would be funny considering it's only a 20% dip from the $74k top. The market is in full on easy mode except for the alts and anyone trading on leverage. Bitcoin has gained significant dominance which means many are fearfully selling alts into it knowing that BTC is the safe bet, as always.
MA(100) $56k
Everything below $58k has a massive amount of support, with the area from $50k-$52.5k looking like an absolute rock-bottom grind. Definitely going all in if we get there. The 100 day moving average has ascended to $56k and will keep going up. When it meets up with $58k that will make this barrier even harder for bears to crack.
The MA(200) sits at $46k, and I would truly be shocked if we got to this level unless something really crazy happened and it was just a wick to flush all the overleveraged longs. Again, I'll be all in at $50k and might even be willing to x10 long there (liquidation of $45k). Somehow I feel like this scenario isn't going to come up but you never know.
Sell in May and go away.
May is an EXTREMELY bullish month for crypto. If we aren't trading at all time highs by the end of May: I'm worried. Three of the critical lines I've drawn over the past few weeks happen to all converge on May 8th, which I hope to mean we will see some kind of bullish reversal during that time. I'm very much expecting a bullish summer run even though history claims otherwise.
Doubling curve towers above at $120k
I still believe that the doubling curve trendline is perfectly valid still and that we've just been oversold this entire time. If we are going to catch back up to it we need to be trading at $200k by the end of the year. This is a big reason why I think summer can be bullish in combination with the ETF hype and halving event supply shock over time.
September
The end of September is always a killer month to buy in any year. Doesn't matter if summer is bullish or bearish, September is usually the bottom or at least bottomed out enough to justify a big buy. Any gains I can eek out in the summer will be saved up to buy during this time.
The bearish case
Should summer be bearish for whatever reason I'll just have to hunker down and save up as much as I can to rebuy the dip in September. However I think it will be obvious what kind of summer we are going to get based on how well May performs. June or July often marks a top with August being a disappointment into max-pain come September. I guess we'll see how this all plays out.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has been doing what I was predicting it would do for quite some time now. The news of the day is an irrelevant excuse. Bitcoiners are still full on delusional and need to be taught that cutting one's security team in half is not bullish, at least not in the short-term. They are in for a very rude awakening.
I'd very much advise against trading on leverage during this time (especially avoid going long). Just wait a few weeks and watch them all get flushed by more disappointing price action. The halving is not some magical event, but it's been hyped up that way for the last two years in a very irrational manner. We can all see what's happened on previous halving events, and the price never spikes to the moon the day after. Everyone is acting like it will. It's absurd.
The fact that we were at a record breaking all time high before halving just means we have even more room to move down after it happens. You've been warned. Even the most bullish of scenarios is bearish in the ultra short term. The selling is guaranteed. The only question is how fast it will take institutions to buy it all up.