Hello, this is the bear market.
Yes, what can I do for you.
I'd like to apply for an extension.
Certainly, sir.
Simply dump the spot price under $17500
and you're good to go.
We are seeing the signals of full capitulation.
Oh really!
Basically everyone is saying we are going to continue downward into this bear market. Hm, yeah, I've seen this before. When everyone says something it never happens. Classic crypto. Such a troll.
Here's a question I would ask Willy Woo: Why would you EVER compare this "bear market" to the other bear markets that followed mega-bubbles? We never got the mega-bubble, but we expect the bear market to look the same as previous iterations? Make it make sense. I've honestly yet to see Woo make a good call. It's weird that he's so popular. Classic case of failing up? Maybe. Bitcoin's price going up exponentially over time certainly allows for that to happen across the board. Even the worst traders in the world can make money on average.
What else am I seeing?
China Back Among Top 10 Countries In Bitcoin-Usage Despite Ban
My god, if only we had known sooner.
Oh... wait...
Once again, this is the kind of news that simply takes a backseat to the spot price. Everyone just stares dumbfoundedly at the number on the screen. Red candle, oh no, it's dying.
What else?
Bitcoin Doesn’t Die: Hash Rate Retakes All-Time High
Seriously? Bitcoin hash rate is at all time highs even after a 75% retracement. I mean think about that for a second. Miners are receiving a quarter of the reward they were getting at peak, but they are still competing harder and harder to get more. It's no secret that hash-rate is pretty strongly correlated to spot price. Could this be a leading indication that spot price is going up? Probably.
Context required!
The recent CPI report combined with the market crash has shaken even the most diehard bulls. Even though we are still firmly trading within the most obvious descending triangle ever, people are still running around talking about a crash to $15k, $12k, and even $10k. Hm, no. Not going to happen. And also even if it does, why are you talking about it while we are still trading within this triangle? Why have people allowed their emotions to rule their assessment of the situation? One bad CPI report comes out and now everything is fucked? Really? It's embarrassing. The report wasn't even that bad, and it certainly had nothing to do with actual USD inflation and everything to do with temporary supply shocks worldwide.
I think it's pretty obvious that a 75 point interest rate hike is now fully priced in, and a 100 point increase is partially priced in, which actually implies that the 75 point increase is overpriced in. If the FED increases rates by 75 points in five days, the market is guaranteed to pump. If they raise by 100 points, it's obvious they are trying to create a recession on purpose. Many economists are calling for a 25 point increase because we haven't had time to see truly see the affects of the previous hikes. These dominoes fall very slowly in the legacy economy.
Maximalists are insufferable, but they also make good points once and a while.
Bitcoin's lack of evolution over time is a feature, not a bug. It's a dependable network that isn't going to change the rules. It's a base layer everyone can build off of without having to worry about getting rugpulled down the road one way or the other.
The ETH merge has happened.
And it should surprise no one that the price is down 5% today. It was the most obvious sell the news moment ever. The hype was real, and the event was clearly overpriced in. Even now that miners are no longer being paid, the network is more energy efficient, and there is a huge financial incentive to stack coins and stake them, still the price goes down. Just goes to show that greed and speculation are infinite while actual fundamental gain is a slow and steady process.
Hopefully this development makes GPUs a lot cheaper, as I'm looking to buy a new computer at the end of the year. No more GPU mining ETH. Get out of there and bring the prices down already. Actually I was looking at hardware on Amazon yesterday and saw that prices are already good right now, but I expect them to be dirt cheap on Cyber Monday so I'll just wait till then. After all this computer is still pretty good and does everything I need it to do.
According to Coinbase liquidity pools, this bear market started on November 9th with a spot price of of $69k and ended on June 17th at a spot price of $17.6k. That's how bear markets are measured: from peak to trough. Look at how many people assume we've been in a bear market from June 17th to now. What evidence do they base this off of? Gut feeling? The only way to extend the bear market is for Bitcoin to crash to $17500 and below.
In retrospect people are going to look back at July, August, and September as part of the upcoming bull market. Of course this assumes Bitcoin will not crash below that local low, but also isn't that the most likely outcome? Descending triangles in crypto are a godsend and break out to the upside 90% of the time. In a situation like the one we are in now the chance is even higher because of how massively oversold everything is. In any case, I'll be proven right in 3 weeks time so I suppose I'll just wait it out. Patience is a virtue.
How delusional can you be?
This guy thinks Vitalik should be thrown in prison, and all coins other than Bitcoin are holding Bitcoin back and may be responsible for a CBDC gaining mass adoption before Bitcoin does. What the actual fuck? This guy identifies as a libertarian, and even points out that most of what he is saying is completely contrarian to his own belief system, but still wants to utilize the prison industrial complex to attack people developing open source code that are wrongfully seen as "competition". Truly mindblowing and a testament to the unadulterated greed of maximalists.
Videos like this come off the heels of SEC commissioner Gary Gensler making the claim that the vast majority of "10000" crypto projects are unregistered securities and need to be regulated. Even the guy in the video points out that the SEC is completely underfunded and doesn't have the power to bring crypto to heel. Why even float ideas that are already known in advance to be impossible? Make it make sense. Oh wait, these guys just want others to pump their Bitcoin bags. I forgot (not).
IT DOESN'T MATTER
Doesn't matter if every single crypto project is deemed to be an unregistered security. How will the SEC regulate them? Show me. Because all I see are fines and settling out of court. LOL. How is fining a centralized dev team akin to shutting a network down? Absurd logic. What are they going to do, fine EOS a second time? Oh wait they can't. That's illegal and against their own rules. Durp. Comical.
Has Ethereum introduced a massive centralized attack vector by swapping to proof-of-stake? Sure. But is it really that much worse than it was before? Not really. I'd say it's an interesting experiment to say the least. These tests in the field have to be done. It's unavoidable.
FAILURE IS PROGRESS
Trying to claim alts are getting in Bitcoin's way is absurd. Projecting competition onto open source development is absurd, and yet greed always pushes tribalists forward in the same exact ways over and over again. Maximalists just want to be the new overlords of the world. It's horribly embarrassing as someone who knows what decentralization is all about. History is not going to look back fondly at maximalists. I guarantee it. They will be punished down the road one way or another, even if it's just being excluded from airdrops. I bet they complain anyway even though they'll all be multi-millionaires.
Conclusion
History constantly gets rewritten. In the context of a bear market, we are living in it right now. However, in retrospect that very well may not be the case, as shown above. Assuming $17600 is the local low, the bear market ended months ago, and nobody realizes it yet.
Maximalists are disgusting hypocrites. No new information there. What they do not understand is that crypto as a whole is unstoppable, and we are all in this together. The projected competition goes against everything this collaborative movement stands for. Intellectual Property is becoming irrelevant. All the power lies in community and cooperation.
It does not matter if regulators think a project is a security if the dev team lives in another country, or better yet is fully anon. How are they going to fine an anon dev team (let alone completely shut down the network)? It's all absurdist thinking spewed from the minds of greedy small-minded people with no grasp of the macro element.
The ETH merge was successful and I'm excited to buy a new GPU (kek).