Watching Hive price go from $1.60 to 85 cents isn't easy!
Crap did I just lose $170000?
Of course unrealized gains and losses mean nothing around here, especially when all the stake is locked up like it is.
Turn that frown upside down!
Think back to three days ago. Before the pump. Hive was trading at 70 cents. Who else was worried that this was a peak and would head back down to 50 cents again? I was.
However, as soon as Hive spiked to $1.60, those fears were put to rest. Even if all of these gains melt away back to the 70 cent line, we still have exponentially more support at this level than we did just three days ago.
Call me crazy, but when people see the price x2 in ten minutes, they think twice before selling at the lower levels. Everyone who missed the last pump is looking to get in on the next one. That means a lot more holders are going to be sitting on liquid Hive this time around. Especially if we are trading at 70 cents again. No one wants to sell their coins for the idiot prices. Many will wait for a better deal.
In my mind, as far as Hive is concerned, 70 cents is the new support. This absolutely was not the case 3 days ago. More importantly, the real resistance is at $5-$10. That's the range where all the whales wake up and remember how wrecked they got on Steem during 2018. Lots and lots of people gonna sell there. These opening $1-$2 levels mean nothing in a grand scheme of a mega-bubble.
There's also an argument to be made that this community has been chronically undervalued for years now. Steem went all the way down to 7 cents in March 2017. We've been building and decentralizing that entire time. Given a similar doubling curve as Bitcoin, this community should already be worth $1.12.
It's possible probable that the series of unfortunate events that has befallen this community time and time again has kept us in a constant state of oversold floundering. This becomes especially relevant when we look at whales that were exiting the platform with ninja-mined stake that they didn't work for.
For all the faults that Hive has, there really is no competition for what we are doing here. People keep talking about "decentralized social media" while they sit on their hands and continue to ignore what we have going here. No network out there is going to magically catch up to where we are today in terms of token distribution and decentralized development. The hardships we've faced in the past have turned our codebase into a grizzled and efficient (cheap) data ledger.
So when do we get to the tipping point?
This is a capitalistic question in nature. When can developers live off of Hive and quit their rat-race day-job? What about bloggers? What about all the other jobs we haven't created yet?
Get paid to ______.
At the end of the day it's all about money and resources. Hive doesn't have a lot of money floating around (yet) but we've done pretty damn well with what we had. Scrappers Guild unite!
Conclusion
The cycle continues!
It's always good to have some liquid Hive on hand just in case something crazy happens (like an x2 in ten minutes). Historically the price is going to drop 95% of the time after a big pump like that. However, I always urge steady hands and balanced positions. It's never correct to move all in or all out of these markets. Hedge your bets and you'll do just fine.