China is at it again!
Chinese regulators have tightened restrictions that ban financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrencies, marking a fresh crackdown on digital money.
Compared with a previous ban issued in 2017, the new rules greatly expanded the scope of prohibited services, and judged that "virtual currencies are not supported by any real value".
Three financial industry associations on Tuesday directed their members, which include banks and online payment firms, not to offer any crypto-related services, such as account openings, registration, trading, clearing, settlement and insurance, reiterating the 2017 ban.
Many Chinese investors were now trading on platforms owned by Chinese exchanges that had relocated overseas, including Huobi and OKEx. Meanwhile, China's over-the-counter market for cryptocurrencies has become busy again, while once-dormant trading chartrooms on social media have revived.
Hong Kong’s Bitcoin Association said in a tweet in response to China’s reiterated ban: “For those new to bitcoin, it is customary for the People’s Bank of China to ban bitcoin at least once in a bull cycle.”
“For those new to bitcoin, it is customary for the People’s Bank of China to ban bitcoin at least once in a bull cycle.”
LOL. Classic.
Also... this...!
Is there any truth to this?
Eh why do the research when we can just speculate blindly. That's what I always say. When it really comes down to it Bitcoin is a totally unregulated market that can be manipulated without fear of retribution. To think that the market wouldn't be manipulated would be extremely naïve.
So last night we had a flash crash that took us all the way down to $30k. By the time I woke up we had already popped back up to $39k. These waters are choppy as hell.
This flash crash marks a 54% retracment... which is TERRIFYING. These are the kinds of retracements we see when the party is over and we've entered the bear market. It's time to remind everyone that the REAL support is still at $20k doubling curve.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
But again, if this was insider trading liquidating longs, EVERY SINGLE LONG JUST GOT FUCKING SMASHED. The last time this happened we were so bottomed out (in March 2020) that all we could do was move up. This could easily be another situation similar to that where we just FULLY bottomed out and can only move up during a bullish summer. Is this simply the wishful thinking of a mega-bull? Who knows.
Conclusion
Again 54% retrace is really a bad omen. It's the kind of retrace that marks the end of a mega-bull run. Fortunately we were only x3.25 above the doubling curve to begin with, which is a standard bull run peak. That would imply that if you think a mega-bull run is still in the cards that's exactly where we'll go ($250k BTC by end of year).
When it really comes down to it I was starting to think my $250k prediction by end of year was totally off. The timelines weren't adding up. $65k BTC in APRIL was way too high. Now we are exactly where we need to be to continue on.
As a reminder, we are approaching the first summer in over a year where people will be vaccinated and the economy won't be locked down and people won't be hunkered down in their homes in fear. Summer is always a bullish time for Bitcoin. I'd be pretty surprised with a poor performance in June. Still think we can make it to $100k in a month or two. But again, this could just be the wishful thinking of a mega-bull. Who knows.
Even if this bull-market is over, price is going to go up regardless. After a near 60% retrace there will ALWAYS be a dead-cat-bounce caused from speculation and all the longs being fully liquidated. The question is: do we take gains when the price bounces back up or do we get greedy and hope that summer really is super bullish?